Look up! Your guide to some of the best meteor showers for 2021

Jonti Horner, University of Southern Queensland and Tanya Hill, Museums Victoria

The best meteor showers are a spectacular sight but, unfortunately, 2021 starts with a whimper. Moonlight this January will wash out the first of the big three — the Quadrantids (seen above in 2020).

After that, the year just gets better and better, with the Perseids (another of the big three along with the Geminids) a particular highlight for northern hemisphere observers in August.

In addition to the year’s other reliable performers we’ve included one wild card: the Aurigids, in late August. Most years, the Aurigids are a very, very minor shower, but they just might put on a show this year.

So here is our pick of the meteoric highlights for 2021.

For each meteor shower, we give you a finder chart showing the radiant (where the meteors appear to come from in the sky) and where best to look in the sky, the full period of activity and the forecast peak. Most meteor showers typically only yield their best rates for about a day around maximum, so the peak night is definitely the best to observe.

The Zenithal Hourly Rate ZHR is the maximum number of meteors you would expect to see under perfect observing conditions. The actual number you will see will likely be lower.

Most meteor showers can only really be observed from either the northern [N] or southern [S] hemisphere, but a few are visible from both [N/S].

Lyrids [N/S; N favoured]

Active: April 14–30

Maximum: April 22, 1pm UTC = 11pm AEST (Qld) = 7am CST = 3am Hawaii time

ZHR: 18

Parent: Comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher

The Lyrids are one of the meteor showers with the longest and most storied histories, with recorded observations spanning millenia. In the past, they were one of the year’s most active showers, with a history of producing spectacular meteor storms.

Flash of two meteors across a night sky. — A couple of Lyrids.
Flickr/DraconianRain, CC BY-NC

Nowadays, the Lyrids are more sedate, putting on a reliable show without matching the year’s stronger showers. They still throw up occasional surprises such as an outburst in excess of 90 meteors per hour in 1982.

This year’s peak Lyrid rates coincide with the first quarter Moon, which will set around midnight, local time, for most locations. The best time to observe will come in the early hours of the morning, after moonset.

For observers in the northern hemisphere, the Lyrid radiant will already be at a useful altitude by the time the Moon is low in the sky, so some brighter meteors might be visible despite the moonlight in the late evening (after around 10:30pm, local time).

Once the Moon sets the sky will darken and make the shower much easier to observe, yielding markedly higher rates.

Across the US, the Lyrid radiant is high in the east before sunrise, above the Summer Triangle of Vega, Deneb and Altair. Low to the horizon, Jupiter and Saturn are rising. US around 4am local time.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

For observers in the southern hemisphere, the Lyrid radiant reaches a useful altitude in the early hours of the morning, when the Moon will have set. If you’re a keen meteor observer, it could be worth setting your alarm early to get out and watch the show for a few hours before dawn.

The Boorong from north-western Victoria saw the Lyrids as Neilloan, the Mallee fowl, kicking up shooting stars while preparing her nest. Melbourne, 5am.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Lyrid meteors are fast and often quite bright so can be rewarding to observe, despite the relatively low rates (one every five or ten minutes, or so). Remember, this shower always has the potential to throw up an unexpected surprise.

Eta Aquariids [S]

Active: April 19–May 28

Maximum: May 6, 3am UTC = 1pm AEST (Qld/NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = 11am AWST (WA)

ZHR: 50+

Parent: Comet 1P/Halley

The Eta Aquariids are an autumn treat for southern hemisphere observers. While not one of the big three, they stand clear as the best of the rest of the annual showers, yielding a fine display in the two or three hours before dawn.

The Eta Aquariids are fast meteors and are often bright, with smoky trains. They are fragments of the most famous comet, 1P/Halley, which has been laying down debris around its current orbit of the Sun for tens of thousands of years.

Earth passes through that debris twice a year, with the Eta Aquariids the best of the two meteor showers that result. The other is the Orionids, in October.

Where most meteor showers have a relatively short, sharp peak, the Eta Aquariids remain close to their best for a whole week, centred on the maximum. Good rates (ZHR > 30 per hour) should be visible before sunrise on each morning between May 3–10.

The Moon will be a waning crescent when the Eta Aquariids are at their best. Its glare should not interfere badly with the shower, washing out only the faintest members.

Observers who brave the pre-dawn hours to observe the Eta Aquariids will have the chance to lie beneath a spectacular sky. The Milky Way will be high overhead, with Jupiter, Saturn and the Moon high to the east and bright, fast meteors streaking across the sky from an origin near the eastern horizon.

The crescent Moon, the two biggest planets, a couple of bright stars and the Eta Aquariids all in the east before sunrise on May 6. Australia, around 4am local time.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Perseids [N]

Active: July 17–August 24

Maximum: August 12, 7pm–10pm UTC = 8pm–11pm BST = August 13, 4am–7am JST

ZHR: 110

Parent: Comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle

The Perseids are the meteoric highlight of the northern summer and the most observed shower of the year. December’s Geminids offer better rates but the timing of the Perseid peak makes them an ideal holiday treat.

The Perseids are debris shed behind by comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle, which is the largest known object (diameter around 26km) whose orbit currently intersects that of Earth.

An asteroid streak across the sky with a volcano and telescope in the foreground. — A Perseid crosses the sky over the Teide volcano and Teide Observatory on Tenerife.
Flickr/StarryEarth, CC BY-NC

Perseid meteors are fast, crashing into Earth at a speed of about 216,000km/h, and often bright. While the shower is active, at low levels, for more than a month, the best rates are typically visible for at the three nights centred on the peak.

The Perseids radiate from the north-east, with the radiant rising high in the sky during the early hours of the morning. London, 11pm (left) and 4am (right)
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

For observers at European latitudes, the Perseid radiant rises by mid-evening, so the shower can be easily observed from 10pm local time, and remains high all through the night. The later in the night you look, the higher the radiant will be and the more meteors you’re likely to see.

Aurigids [N favoured]

Active: August 28–September 5

Maximum: Potential Outburst on August 31, peaking between 9:15pm–9:40pm UTC = 10:15pm–10:40pm BST = 11:15pm–11:40pm CEST = September 1, 1:15am–1:40am Gulf Standard Time = September 1, 5:15am–5:40am AWST (WA)

ZHR: 50–100 (?)

Parent: Comet C/1911 N1 Kiess

Where the other showers are reliable and relatively predictable, offering good rates every year, the Aurigids are an entirely different beast.

In most years, the shower is barely visible. Even at its peak, rates rarely exceed just a couple of meteors seen per hour. But occasionally the Aurigids bring a surprise with short and unexpected outbursts of 30-50 meteors an hour seen in 1935, 1986, 1994 and 2019.

The parent comet of the Aurigids, C/1911 N1 Kiess, moves on an orbit with a period far longer than the parent of any other shower on our list.

It is thought the orbit takes between 1,800 and 2,000 years to complete, although our knowledge of it is very limited as it was only observed for a short period of time.

In late August every year, Earth passes through debris shed by the comet at a previous passage thousands of years into the past. In most years, the dust we encounter is very sparse.

But occasionally we intersect a denser, narrow stream of debris, material laid down at the comet’s previous passage. That dust has not yet had time to disperse so is more densely packed and hence gives enhanced rates: a meteor outburst.

Several independent research teams studying the past behaviour of the shower have all come to the same conclusion. On August 31, 2021, the Earth will once again intersect that narrow band of debris and an outburst may occur, with predictions it will peak around 21:17 UTC or 21:35 UTC.

Such an outburst would be short-lived. The dense core of the debris stream is so narrow it will take the Earth just ten or 20 minutes to traverse. So you’ll have to be lucky to see it.

The forecast outburst this year is timed such that observers in Eastern Europe and Asia will be the fortunate ones, with the radiant above the horizon. The waning Moon will light the sky when the radiant is above the horizon, washing out the fainter meteors from the shower.

From Europe, the expected peak of the Aurigids occurs just before Moonrise. Be sure to look for the Pleiades whilst watching for any Aurigids – they’re a spectacular cluster of bright stars, commonly known as the Seven Sisters. Vienna, 11:30pm.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

The crescent Moon has risen in Asia at the time the Aurigids peak. Dubai, 1:30am.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

The Aurigids tend to be fast and are often quite bright. Previous outbursts of the shower have featured large numbers of bright meteors. It may just be worth getting up and heading outside at the time of the predicted outburst, just in case the Aurigids give us a show to remember.

While waiting for the Aurigids, the morning sky in Perth is also packed with many famous constellations and bright stars. Perth, 5:30am.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Geminids [N/S]

Active: December 4–17

Maximum: December 14, 7am UTC = 6pm AEDT (NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = 3pm AWST (WA) = 2am EST

ZHR: 150

Parent: Asteroid 3200 Phaethon

The Geminid meteor shower is truly a case of saving the best until last. By far the best of the annual meteor showers, it graces our skies every December, yielding good numbers of spectacular, bright meteors.

The shower is so good it is always worth observing, even in 2021, when the Moon will be almost full.

Over the decades, the Geminids have gradually become stronger and stronger. They took the crown of the year’s best shower from the Perseids in the 1990s, and have continued to improve ever since.

For observers in the northern hemisphere, the Geminids are visible from relatively early in the evening, with their radiant rising shortly after sunset, and remaining above the horizon for all of the hours of darkness.

As the night progresses, the radiant gets very high in the sky and the shower can put on a truly spectacular show.

For those in the southern hemisphere, the situation is not quite as ideal. The further south you live, the later the radiant will rise, and so the later the show will begin.

When the radiant reaches its highest point in the sky (around 2am–3am local time), it sits closer to the horizon the further south you are, so the best meteor rates you observe will be reduced compared to those seen from more northerly locations.

At its highest point, the Geminids radiant sits higher from Brisbane (left) than from Hobart (right), which is why northern observers have a better chance of seeing more meteors.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Despite these apparent drawbacks, the Geminids are still by far the best meteor shower of the year for observers in Australia, and are well worth a look, even on the moonlit nights of 2021.

Peak Geminid rates last for around 24 hours, centred on the official peak time, before falling away relatively rapidly thereafter. This means that observers around the globe can enjoy the display.

The best rates come when the radiant is highest in the sky (around 2–3am) but it is well worth looking up at any time after the radiant has risen above the horizon.

The Geminid radiant rises at about the following times across Australia., Author provided

So wherever you are on the planet, if skies are clear for the peak of the Geminids, it is well worth going outside and looking up, to revel in the beauty of the greatest of the annual meteor showers.

Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland and Tanya Hill, Honorary Fellow of the University of Melbourne and Senior Curator (Astronomy), Museums Victoria

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Look up! Your guide to some of the best meteor showers for 2020

A composite image of one night watching the Orionids meteor shower.
Flickr/Jeff Sullivan, CC BY-NC-ND

Jonti Horner, University of Southern Queensland and Tanya Hill, Museums Victoria

Where 2019 was a disappointing year for meteor showers, with two of the big three (the Quadrantids, Perseids and Geminids) lost mainly to moonlight, 2020 promises to be much better.

The year starts with a bang with the Quadrantids providing a treat for northern hemisphere viewers. The Perseids, in August, provide another highlight for those in the northern hemisphere, while the December Geminids round the year off for observers all around the world.

But the big three aren’t the only meteor showers that will put on a show this year. So when should you look up to see the meteoric highlights of the coming year?

Here’s our pick of the showers to watch. We have the time each shower is forecast to peak, finder charts showing you where best to look, and the theoretical peak rates you could see under ideal observing conditions. This is a number known as the Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR).

Because the ZHR is the theoretical maximum rate you could see per hour, it is likely that the rates you observe will be lower.

For any meteor shower, if you want to give yourself the best chance to see a good display, it is worth trying to find a good dark site, as far from light polluted skies as possible. Once you’re outside give yourself plenty of time to adapt to the darkness, at least half an hour. Then just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

Showers that can only really be seen from either the northern or southern hemisphere are denoted by [N] or [S], whilst those that can be seen from both are marked by [N/S].

You can download a ICS file of this guide to add to your favourite calender.

Quadrantids [N]

Active: December 28 – January 12

Maximum: January 4, 8:20am UTC = 8:20am GMT = 3:20am EST = 12:20am PST

ZHR: 120 (variable, can reach ~200)

Parent: It’s complicated… (Comet 96P/Macholz and asteroid 2003 EH1)

The Quadrantids are the first of the big three meteor showers of the year – the three showers that give fabulous displays with ZHRs in excess of 100, year in, year out.

For most of the fortnight over which the Quadrantids are active, rates are low – just a few meteors per hour. In the hours approaching their peak, rates climb rapidly, before falling away just as rapidly once the peak is past. In total, rates exceed a quarter of their maximum value for just eight hours, centred on the peak.

From Vancouver, as the Quadrantids reach their peak, the radiant is low to the horizon, but it moves higher in the east as dawn approaches [Vancouver midnight].
Museums Victoria/stellarium

The Quadrantid radiant is circumpolar (never sets) for locations north of 40 degrees north. As a result, the shower can be observed throughout the hours of darkness for most locations in Europe and many in North America.

The radiant lies in the constellation Boötes, the Herdsman, relatively near the tail of Ursa Major, the Plough or Great Bear.

The radiant rises highest in the sky in the early hours of the morning, so this is when the best rates can be seen. In 2020, the shower’s peak favours observers in the east of North America, though those in northern Europe should see a good display in the hours before dawn on the morning of January 4.

If skies are clear it is definitely worth wrapping up warm and heading out to observe the most elusive of the year’s big three.

Lyrids [N/S; N preferred]

Active: April 14 – 30

Maximum: Variable – between April 21, 10:40pm UTC and April 22, 9:40am UTC (April 22 9:40am UTC = 4:40am EST = 1:40am PST)

ZHR: 18 (variable, can reach ~90)

Parent: Comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher

The Lyrids are a shower with a long and storied history – with records reporting their activity tracing back for millennia. Researchers have even suggested the Lyrids may have been active on Earth for more than a million years.

In the distant past, there are reports the Lyrids produced some spectacular displays – meteor storms, with thousands of meteors visible per hour.

The modern Lyrids are usually more sedate, with peak rates rarely exceeding ~18 meteors per hour. But they do sometimes throw up the odd surprise. An outburst of the Lyrids in 1982 yielded rates of ~90 meteors per hour for a short period.

While no such outburst is forecast this year, the peak of the shower will occur just a day before a new Moon, so skies will be dark and viewing conditions ideal.

From the USA, the radiant is well placed from late evening through the morning hours [Chicago 11pm]
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Although the Lyrids are best seen from the northern hemisphere, their radiant can reach a useful altitude for observers in the northern half of Australia. Keen observers might be tempted to head out in the early hours of the morning to watch.

Across Australia, the Lyrids are best seen in the hour before sunrise, when the radiant is at its highest [Brisbane, 5am].
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

The radiant rises during the night so the best rates are seen in the early hours of the morning, before dawn. From northern hemisphere sites, reasonable rates can be seen after about 10:30pm, local time -– but for those at southern hemisphere latitudes, the radiant fails to reach a reasonable altitude until well after midnight.

Lyrid meteors tend to be relatively fast and are often bright. Despite the relatively low rates (at least, compared to the big three) they are well worth a watch, especially as conditions this year will be as close to perfect as possible.

Eta Aquariids [S]

Active: April 19 – May 28

Maximum: May 5, 9pm UTC = May 6, 7am AEST (Qld/NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = May 6, 4am AWST (WA) = May 6, 6am JST

ZHR: 50+

Parent: Comet 1P/Halley

While not counted as one of the big three, in many ways the Eta Aquariids stand clear of the pack as the best of the rest.

Only really visible to observers in the tropics and the southern hemisphere, the Eta Aquariids are fragments of the most famous of comets –- Halley’s comet. They mark the first (and best) of two passages made by the Earth through the debris laid down by that comet over thousands of years –- with the other being the Orionids, in October.

Look to the east before sunrise and catch the Eta Aquariids along with Jupiter, Saturn, and Mars too [Melbourne 5am].
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

The radiant only rises a few hours before dawn, even at southern altitudes, and the further north you go, the closer to sunrise the radiant appears. This is what prevents northern hemisphere observers from taking advantage of the Eta Aquariids –- the Sun has risen by the time the radiant is high enough for the shower to put on a decent show.

The meteors are fast and often bright, and the brighter ones have a reputation for leaving behind noticeable smoky trains. The maximum of the shower is broad, with rates remaining above ~30 meteors per hour for the week around the date of the maximum.

It is well worth getting out to observe the Eta Aquariids at around the time their radiant rises. This gives the maximum amount of time to observe the shower before dawn, but in addition, those few meteors you observe when the radiant is sitting just above the horizon can be spectacular.

Known as Earthgrazers, such meteors enter the atmosphere at a very shallow angle, with the result that they can streak all the way across the sky, from horizon to horizon.

The Eta Aquariids reach their peak in 2020 a couple of days before the full Moon. That the radiant does not rise until a few hours before sunrise works to our advantage this year –- the shower’s radiant will rise at around the same time the Moon sets, so the shower can be observed in Moon-free skies, despite the proximity of the Full Moon.

Perseids [N]

Active: July 17 – August 24

Maximum: August 12, 1pm – 4pm UTC = 3am – 6am HST = 10pm – August 13, 1am JST + filament passage ~3 hours before the main peak

ZHR: 110

Parent: Comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle

For northern hemisphere observers, the Perseids are perhaps the famous and reliable shower of the year.

While the Geminids offer higher rates, the Perseids fall during the middle of the northern summer, when families are often holidaying and the weather is warm and pleasant. As a result, the Perseids are the most widely observed of all meteor showers, and never fail to put on a spectacular show.

The parent comet of the Perseid meteor shower, 109P/Swift-Tuttle, was last at perihelion (closest to the Sun) in 1991. As a result, during the 1990s, the Perseids offered enhanced rates –- often displaying multiple peaks through the two or three days around their traditional maximum.

Those individual peaks were the result of the Earth passing through individual trails of material, laid down at past perihelion passages of the comet, which have not yet had time to fully disperse into the background of the shower as a whole.

It is now three decades since the comet’s last perihelion passage, but astronomers predict the Earth could well pass through one of those debris trails this year, at around 10am UTC (midnight Hawaii time, 3am Vancouver time), three hours before the normal forecast maximum for the shower.

As a result, peak rates should last for longer, and potentially reach higher values than would normally be expected from a typical Perseid return.

The radiant rises in the mid-evening from northern latitudes, which means the shower can be observed from around 10pm or 11pm, local time. The later in the night you look, the higher the radiant will be, and so the more meteors will be visible.

This year it’s best to catch the Perseids early in the evening before the Moon rises [Greenwich 9pm].
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Unfortunately, the peak of the Perseids in 2020 falls two days after the last quarter Moon, which means moonlight will begin to interfere with the display in the early hours of the morning. The best views of the shower will likely be seen between ~10pm or 11pm local time and ~2am the following morning.

If you can only observe in the hours before dawn, all is not lost. The Perseids are famed for producing plenty of bright meteors. They are worth observing even when the Moon is above the horizon, particularly on the nights around the forecast peak.

Orionids [N/S]

Active: October 2 – November 7

Maximum: October 21

ZHR: 20+

Parent: 1P/Halley

The Orionid meteor shower marks the second occasion the Earth encounters the stream of debris left behind by Halley’s comet each year.

In October, Earth passes farther from the centre of Halley’s debris stream than in May, with the result the observed rates for the Orionids are lower than for the Eta Aquariids. Despite this, the Orionids remain a treat for meteor enthusiasts in the northern autumn and southern spring.

The Orionids peak on October 21 but that maximum is often quite broad with activity hovering close to the peak rates for as much as a week around the maximum.

There is some evidence the peak rates vary over time, with a roughly 12 year periodicity, as a result of perturbations by the giant planet Jupiter (which orbits the Sun once every 12 years).

In the final years of the first decade of the 21st Century, the Orionids were markedly more active than expected, with maximum rates in the range 40-70. If the periodicity is real, then 12 years on from the peak of activity it is possible the Orionids will again put on a better than expected show.

So 2020 might well be an ideal year to look up and watch for fragments of Halley’s Comet vapourising high overhead.

Before dawn, Orion stands upright in the south as seen from the northern hemisphere [Vancouver 5am].
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

The radiant rises just before local midnight, meaning the meteors are best observed in the early hours of the morning. The radiant reaches its highest altitude in the hours before dawn. The Moon will not interfere this year, setting in the early evening, long before the radiant rises.

The view from the southern hemisphere finds Orion upside in the northern sky before sunrise.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Observers watching the Orionids are in for an extra treat. While the Orionids are active, so too are the Northern and Southern Taurid meteor showers. Where the Orionids are fast meteors, Taurids are slow, and often bright and spectacular.

Although the rates of both the Northern and Southern Taurids are lower than those of the Orionids (typically just ~5 per hour), their activity makes observations of the Orionids even more productive and exciting.

Geminids [N/S]

Active: December 4 – 17

Maximum: December 14, 12:50am UTC = 11:50am AEDT (NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = 8:50am AWST (WA) = 5:50pm EST (evening of December 13)

ZHR: 150

Parent: Asteroid 3200 Phaethon

The Geminids, which peak in mid-December, are truly a case of saving the best until last. The biggest of the year’s big three, the Geminids have, over the past few decades, been growing ever more active and spectacular, with recent years seeing rates in excess of 150 per hour.

For observers in northern Europe, the radiant is above the horizon relatively soon after sunset, meaning that the Geminids can readily be observed from around 8pm onwards.

The further south you travel, the later in the evening the radiant rises. For observers in Australia, the times at which the radiant appears above the horizon can be seen below.

As with all showers, the higher the radiant in the sky, the better the observed rates from the Geminids will be. The longer you watch, the better things will get.

Geminid meteors are of medium speed and often bright so they put on a spectacular show even in those years when moonlight interferes.

In 2020 the Moon will be new around this time so it will be possible to spend the entire night watching the Geminids without any interference from our nearest celestial neighbour.

The radiant reaches its highest at around 2am local time making the hours just after midnight the ideal time to catch the Geminids at their best.

The Geminids will put on a show during the early hours of the December 14 [Perth 2am; Sydney 3am]
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

The Geminid peak is relatively broad -– with rates remaining high for at least 24 hours around the forecast maximum. Observers across the globe will be treated to a spectacular display from the shower in 2020.

So find a dark site, wrap up warm, and treat yourself to a night spent watching the year’s most spectacular display of natural fireworks.

Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland and Tanya Hill, Honorary Fellow of the University of Melbourne and Senior Curator (Astronomy), Museums Victoria

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Look up! Your guide to some of the best meteor showers for 2019

File 20181217 185255 1g6x1vi.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1 — The 2018 Geminids meteor shower recorded over two very cold hours on the slope of Mount Lütispitz, Switzerland.
Flickr/Lukas Schlagenhauf, CC BY-ND

Jonti Horner, University of Southern Queensland and Tanya Hill, Museums Victoria

The year gets off to a bang with the Quadrantids, the first of the annual big three meteor showers. Active while the Moon is new, it gives northern hemisphere observers a show to enjoy during the cold nights of winter. Sadly, the shower is not visible from southern skies.

The other two members of the big three — the Perseids and Geminids — are not so fortunate this year, with moonlight set to interfere and reduce their spectacle.

So, with that in mind, where and when should you observe to make the best of 2019’s meteoric offerings? Here we present the likely highlights for this year – the showers most likely to put on a good show.

We provide details of the full forecast activity period for each shower, and the forecast time of maximum. We also give sky charts, showing you where best to look, and give the theoretical peak rates that could be seen under ideal observing conditions – a number known as the Zenithal Hourly Rate, or ZHR.

It is important to note that the ZHR is the theoretical maximum number of meteors you would expect to see per hour for a given shower, unless it were to catch us by surprise with an unexpected outburst!

In reality, the rates you observe will be lower than the ZHR – but the clearer and darker your skies, and the higher the shower’s radiant in the sky, the closer you will come to this ideal value.

For any shower, to see the best rates, it is worth trying to find a good dark site (the darker the better) – far from streetlights and other illuminations. Once you’re outside, give your eyes plenty of time to adapt to the dark – half an hour should do the trick.

Showers that can only really be seen from one hemisphere or the other are denoted by either [N] or [S], while those that can be seen globally are marked as [N/S].

You can download this ics file and add to your calendar to stay informed on when the meteor showers are due.

Quadrantids [N]

Active: December 28 – January 12

Maximum: January 4, 2:20am UT = 2:20am GMT = 3:20am CET

ZHR: 120 (variable, can reach ~200)

Parent: It’s complicated (comet 96P/Macholz and asteroid 2003 EH1)

Despite being one of this year’s three most active annual showers, the Quadrantids are often overlooked and under-observed. This is probably the result of their peak falling during the depths of the northern hemisphere winter, when the weather is often less than ideal for meteor observations.

For most of the fortnight they are active, Quadrantid rates are very low (less than five per hour). The peak itself is very short and sharp, far more so than for the year’s other major showers. As a result, rates exceed a quarter of the maximum ZHR for a period of just eight hours, centred on the peak time.

The Quadrantid radiant lies in the northern constellation Boötes, relatively near the tail of Ursa Major, the Great Bear. The radiant is shown here at around midnight, local time, as it begins to climb higher in the northeastern sky.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium, Author provided

The Quadrantid radiant lies in the northern constellation Boötes, the Herdsman, and is circumpolar (never sets) for observers poleward of 40 degrees north. As a result, observers in northern Europe and Canada can see Quadrantids at any time of night. The radiant is highest in the sky (and the rates are best) in the hours after midnight.

For this reason, this year’s peak (at 2:20am UT) is best suited for observers in northern Europe – and given that peak rates can exceed 100 per hour, it is certainly worth setting the alarm for, to get up in the cold early hours, and watch the spectacle unfold.

This false-color composite image shows a combination of Quadrantid and non-Quadrantid meteors streaking through the skies over NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, in the US, on the night of January 3-4, 2012.
NASA/MSFC/Meteoroid Environments Office/Danielle Moser and Bill Cooke, CC BY-NC

Alpha Centaurids [S]

Active: January 31 – February 20

Maximum: February 8, 1:00pm UT = February 8, 9pm (WA) = February 8, 11pm (QLD) = February 9, 12am (NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas)

ZHR: Variable; typically 6, but can exceed 25

Parent: Unknown

The Alpha Centaurids are a minor meteor shower, producing typical rates of just a few meteors per hour. But they are famed as a source of spectacular fireballs for southern hemisphere observers and so are worth keeping an eye out for in southern summer skies.

Alpha Centaurids are fast meteors, and are often bright. As with most showers that are only visible from the southern hemisphere, they remain poorly studied. Though typically yielding low rates, several outbursts have occurred where rates reached or exceeded 25 per hour.

The shower’s radiant lies close to the bright star Alpha Centauri – the closest naked-eye star to the Solar System and the third brightest star in the night sky.

The Alpha Centaurids are well placed for the southern hemisphere. This view from Brisbane around the time of maximum activity.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Alpha Centauri is just 30 degrees from the south celestial pole. As a result, the radiant essentially never sets for observers across Australia. The best rates will be seen from late evening onward, as the radiant rises higher into the southern sky.

This year, the peak of the Alpha Centaurids coincides with the New Moon, making it an ideal time to check out this minor but fascinating shower.

Eta Aquariids [S preferred]

Active: April 19 – May 28

Maximum: May 6, 2pm UT = May 6, 10pm (WA) = May 7, 12am (QLD/NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas)

ZHR = 40+

Parent: Comet 1P/Halley

The Eta Aquariids are possibly the year’s most overlooked treat, particularly for observers in the southern hemisphere. The first of two annual showers produced by comet 1P/Halley, the Eta Aquariids produce excellent rates for a whole week around their peak.

The radiant rises in the early hours of the morning, after the forecast maximum time, and best rates are seen just as the sky starts to brighten with the light of dawn. It can be well worth rising early to observe them, as rates can climb as high as 40 to 50 meteors per hour before the brightening sky truncates the display.

Look for the Eta Aquariids before sunrise and catch Venus and Mercury too.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Eta Aquariid meteors are fast and often bright, and the shower regularly rewards those who are willing to rise early. Spectacular Earth-grazing meteors that tear from one side of the sky to the other can be seen shortly after the radiant rises above the horizon.

This year conditions are ideal to observe the shower, with New Moon falling on May 4, just two days before the forecast maximum. As a result, the whole week around the peak will be suitable for morning observing sessions, giving observers plenty of opportunity to see the fall of tiny fragments of the most famous of comets.

Southern Delta Aquariids, Piscis Austrinids and Alpha Capricornids [N/S; S favoured]

Active: Early-July to Mid-August

Maximum: July 28 – 30

Combined ZHR: 35

Parent: Comet 96P/Macholz (Southern Delta Aquariids); Unknown (Piscis Austrinids); Comet 169P/NEAT (Alpha Capricornids)

In most years, the approach of August is heralded by keen meteor observers as the build up to the Perseids – the second of the year’s big three showers. This year, moonlight will interfere, spoiling them for most observers.

But this cloud comes with a silver lining. A fortnight or so before the peak of the Perseids, three relatively minor showers come together to provide an excellent mid-winter show for southern hemisphere observers. This year, the Moon is perfectly placed to allow their observation.

These three showers – the Southern Delta Aquariids, Alpha Capricornids and Pisces Austrinids – favour observers in the southern hemisphere, though they can also be observed from northern latitudes.

Regardless of your location, the best rates for these showers are seen in the hours after midnight. Reasonable rates begin to be visible for southern hemisphere observers as early as 10pm local time.

The radiants of the Southern Delta Aquariids, Alpha Capricornids and Piscis Austrinids ride high in the southern hemisphere sky around local midnight.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

For northern hemisphere observers, the radiants of the same three showers sit low to the horizon around local midnight.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

The Southern Delta Aquariids are the most active of the three, producing up to 25 fast, bright meteors per hour at their peak, which spans the five days centred on July 30.

The Alpha Capricornids, by contrast, produce lower rates typically contributing just five meteors per hour. But where the Southern Delta Aquariids are fast, the Alpha Capricornids are very slow meteors and are often spectacular.

Like the Alpha Centaurids, in February, they have a reputation for producing large numbers of spectacular fireballs. This tendency to produce meteors that are both very bright and also slow moving makes them an excellent target for astrophotographers, as well as naked-eye observers.

An Alpha Capricornid meteor captured among the star trails in 2013.
Flickr/Jeff Sullivan, CC BY-NC-ND

Taurids [N/S]

Active: September 10 – December 10

Maxima: October 10 (Southern Taurids); November 13 (Northern Taurids)

ZHR: 5 + 5

Parent: Comet 2P/Encke

The Taurids are probably the most fascinating of all the annual meteor showers. Though they only deliver relatively low rates (approximately five per hour from each of the two streams, north and south), they do so over an incredibly long period – three full months of activity.

In other words, the Earth spends a quarter of a year passing through the Taurid stream. In fact, we cross the stream again in June, when the meteors from the shower are lost due to it being exclusively visible in daylight.

So a third of our planet’s orbit is spent ploughing through a broad stream of debris, known as the Taurid stream. In total, the Taurid stream deposits more mass of meteoric material to our planet’s atmosphere than all of the other annual meteor showers combined.

So vast is the Taurid stream that there is speculation that it originated with the cataclysmic disintegration of a super-sized comet, thousands or tens of thousands of years in the past, and that the current shower is a relic of that ancient event.

The two Taurid radiants, as seen from northern Europe before dawn [Paris 6:30am, October 10]
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

The November maximum will be hindered by the Moon, this view as seen from Melbourne during the early hours of November 13.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Taurid meteors are slow, and are often spectacularly bright. Like the Alpha Capricornids, they have a reputation for producing regular fireballs, making them another good target for the budding astrophotographer.

Rather than having a single, sharp peak, Taurid activity stays at, or close to, peak rates for the best part of a month, between the maxima of the northern and southern streams, meaning that it is always possible to find some time when moonlight does not interfere to observe the shower.

Geminids [N/S]

Active: December 4 – December 17

Maximum: December 14, 6:40pm UT = December 15, 4:40am (QLD) = December 15, 5:40am (NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas)

ZHR: 140+

Parent: Asteroid 3200 Phaethon

Another of the big three annual meteor showers, the Geminids are probably the best, with peak rates in recent years exceeding 140 meteors per hour.

A composite image of the Geminids shower from the vantage point of Johnson Space Center, US.
NASA/Lauren Harnett, CC BY-NC

The Geminids are visible from both hemispheres – although the radiant rises markedly earlier for northern observers. Even in the south of Australia, the radiant rises well before midnight, giving all observers the rest of the night to enjoy the spectacle.

The Moon interferes with the Geminids, which radiate close to the bright star Castor. This view is from Perth in the hours before sunrise.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Moonlight will seriously interfere with the peak of the shower this year, washing out the fainter meteors, with the result that observed rates will be lower than the ZHR might otherwise suggest.

But the shower regularly produces abundant bright meteors, and yields such high rates that it is still well worth checking out, even through the glare of the full Moon.

Ursids [N]

Active: December 17 – December 26

Maximum: December 23, 3:00am UT

ZHR: 10+

Parent: Comet 8P/Tuttle

The final shower of the year – the Ursids – is a treat for northern hemisphere observers alone. Much like the shower that started our journey through the year, the Quadrantids, the Ursids remain poorly observed, often lost to the bleak midwinter weather that plagues many northern latitudes.

But if skies are clear the Ursids are visible throughout the night, as their radiant lies just 12 degrees from the north celestial pole. As such, they make a tempting target for observers to check out in the evening, even if the radiant is at its highest in the early hours of the morning.

Most years, the Ursids are a relatively minor shower, with peak rates rarely exceeding ten meteors per hour. They have thrown up a few surprises over the past century, with occasional outbursts of moderately-fast meteors yielding rates up to, and in excess of, a hundred meteors per hour.

The Ursid radiant, in the constellation Ursa Minor, is circumpolar for almost the entire northern hemisphere, as it lies just 12 degrees from the north celestial pole. It is shown here as it would be seen at 11pm from near Tokyo, Japan.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

While no such outburst is predicted for 2019, the Ursids have proven to be a shower with a surprise or two left to show and so may just prove to be an exciting way to end the meteoric year.

If you have a good photo of any of this year’s meteor showers that you’d like to share with The Conversation’s readers then please send it to readerspic@theconversation.edu.au. Please include your full name and the location the photo (or any composite) was taken.

Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland and Tanya Hill, Honorary Fellow of the University of Melbourne and Senior Curator (Astronomy), Museums Victoria

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Climate politics in 2018: another guide for the perplexed

Marc Hudson, University of Manchester

As I predicted a year ago, 2017 was another vicious and bloody-minded year in Australian climate politics. Yet the political bickering belied the fact that it was actually a great year for green energy.

Nowhere was that more in evidence than in South Australia, which got its big battery inside 100-day deadline, with the world’s biggest solar thermal plant set to begin construction this year. Elsewhere, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull talked up the prospects of the Snowy 2.0 hydro storage project.

Yet the politics remain as rancorous as ever. The federal government unveiled its National Energy Guarantee in November, after Chief Scientist Alan Finkel’s Clean Energy Target proved too rich for some in the Coalition. Just before Christmas, the long-awaited climate policy review was released, and immediately branded as weak.

Both issues are unresolved, and are set to loom large on the landscape this year. But what else is on the horizon?

Domestic bliss

We should always expect the unexpected. But perhaps the most predictable “unexpected” event would be a heatwave, prompting one or more of our creaking coal-fired power stations to have a meltdown. Maybe the “Big Banana” (as Elon Musk’s battery has been branded) will step in again, as it already has.

If fossil fuel power stations fail again, expect to see the culture war heat up again, with coal’s defenders using ever more twisting logic to defend their dear dinosaur technology.

Barring the apocalypse, on March 17 South Australians will go to the polls. Will Premier Jay Weatherill be returned to power, to continue his long-running stoush with federal energy minister Josh Frydenberg? Will heatwaves and power outages help or hinder him? At the moment, polls have former senator Nick Xenophon as putative premier. My crystal ball is hazy on what this would mean for energy policy.

In April there will be a meeting of the COAG Energy Council at which the NEG proposal will come under scrutiny. Expect it to be bloody. State governments have demanded more modelling, so they can compare the NEG to Finkel’s Clean Energy Target that Finkel suggested, and an emissions intensity scheme.

Current SA treasurer Tom Koutsantonis has raised several concerns with the NEG, arguing that it doesn’t give a big enough boost to renewables, and would do nothing to break up the power of the big “gentailers”, who generate and sell electricity.

“To proceed, the NEG would require unanimous support at COAG, so this policy is either years away, or won’t happen at all,” Koutsantonis said. Expect a long-running pitched battle if Weatherill and Koutsantonis are still about, and perhaps even if they’re not.

Funding issues

In the May budget the Turnbull government is going to have to decide what to do about the Emissions Reduction Fund, the centrepiece of former prime minister Tony Abbott’s Direct Action policy, which replaced his predecessor Julia Gillard’s carbon price.

The fund, which lets companies bid for public money to implement emissions-reduction projects, started at A$2.55bn, and there is about A$260 million left.

Connected to these decisions are questions over whether and how the fund’s “safeguard mechanism”, which is supposed to stop the system being gamed, will be modified.

Among the many criticisms levelled at the government’s 2017 climate policy review, released with little fanfare the week before Christmas, was the proposal to make the already flexible mechanism even more flexible, so as to “reduce the administrative and auditing costs” for businesses.

The government’s climate review also says that in 2018 it will start the process of developing a long-term emissions-reduction strategy, to be finalised by 2020. It has promised to “consult widely” with businesses, the community, states and territories, and other G20 nations. Time will tell exactly how wide this consultation turns out to be, although anything would be better than the Trump Adminstration’s systematic removal of the term “climate change” from federal websites.

Overseas business

The climate review suggests that the Turnbull government will push for more international carbon trading. An unlikely alliance has formed against the idea, consisting of those who view carbon credits as buck-passing, as well as Tony Abbott, who thinks Australian money “shouldn’t be going offshore into dodgy carbon farms in Equatorial Guinea and Kazakhstan”.

His stance has already been branded as nonsensical by the business lobby – who, it must be said, stand to benefit significantly from carbon trading.

On the diplomatic front, the United Nations will hold a “2018 Talanoa dialogue” process, featuring a series of meetings in which major economies will come under pressure to upgrade their climate commitments to meet the Paris target.

As Giles Parkinson notes, Australia had probably thought that they could get away with no climate target upgrades until around 2025.

In October the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will release a report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5℃ – the more ambitious of the Paris Agreement’s twin goals – and the emissions pathways we would need to follow to get there. Expect climate deniers to get their retaliation in first.

The next UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (number 24 in a never-ending series) will be held in December in Katowice, in Poland’s coal heartland.

Others’ predictions and my own

So, prediction is very difficult, but most of us like to indulge. Reneweconomy asked Frydenberg, his opposite number Mark Butler, and the Greens’ climate spokesperson Adam Bandt what they thought was coming up.

Frydenberg talked up “innovative projects” like this summer’s demand response trial and Snowy 2.0.

Butler gloomily forecasted more policy chaos and renewables-blaming, while Bandt was sunnier, predicting that 2018 will be “the year of energy storage” as the economics for commercial and household batteries begin to stack up.

Bandt also thinks the public debate will heat up as extreme weather hits, and the national security implications become (more) obvious.

Well, it will be fun to watch whether the Minerals Council pulls its horns in under the threat of BHP pulling out. Early signs would suggest not.

Will other mining companies defect?

Will battery storage get a grip on the grid?

Will Adani pull the plug on Carmichael under continuing pressure from campaigners?

Well, here are some safe predictions.

Donald Trump will continue being Donald Trump. Liberal and National backbenchers will put pressure on Turnbull to do what John Howard did when George W. Bush was in the Oval Office – namely, get into the United States’ slipstream and take advantage of the lowered ambition.

There will be further stunning developments in energy storage, and the prices of solar and wind will continue to plummet.

Meanwhile, Australia’s emissions will continue to rise, as will the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide concentrations.

Marc Hudson, PhD Candidate, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of Manchester

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Look up! Your guide to some of the best meteor showers for 2018

File 20171219 27547 1w0do8h.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1 — The 2017 Geminids as seen from Ecuador, against the backdrop of the splendid Milky Way (centre) and the Large Magellanic Cloud (right).
Flickr/David Meyer, CC BY-NC-ND

Jonti Horner, University of Southern Queensland and Tanya Hill, Museums Victoria

This year gets off to a relatively slow start when it comes to seeing the annual major meteor showers.

The Quadrantids, one of the big three annual showers, are lost to the vagaries of the full Moon in early January.

But the year’s other two most active annual showers – the Perseids (in August) and Geminids (in December) – are set to put on fine displays.

So when and where should you look to have the best chance of seeing nature’s fireworks?

Here we present the likely meteoric highlights of 2018. These are the meteor showers most likely to put on a good show this year.

For each shower, we give the forecast activity period and the predicted time of maximum. We also provide charts showing you where to look, and give the peak rates that could be seen under perfect conditions (known as the maximum Zenithal Hourly Rate, or ZHR).

The actual rate you see will always be lower than this value – but the higher a shower’s radiant in the sky and the darker the conditions, the closer the observed rate will get to this ideal value.

To see the best rates it is well worth trying to find a good dark site, far from street lights. Once outside, make sure to give your eyes plenty of time to adapt to the darkness (at least half an hour).

Showers that can only be seen from one hemisphere are denoted by either [N] or [S], with those that can be seen globally marked as [N/S].

Lyrids [N/S; N favoured]

Active: April 14-30

Maximum: April 22, 6pm UT = April 23, 2am AWST (WA) = 4am AEST (QLD/NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas)

ZHR: 18+

Parent: Comet C/1861 G1 (Thatcher)

The Lyrids hold the record for the shower with the longest recorded history, having been observed since at least 687BC.

That longevity is linked to the orbit of the Lyrid’s parent comet, discovered in 1861 by A. E. Thatcher. Comet Thatcher moves on a highly inclined, eccentric orbit, swinging through the inner Solar system every 415 years or so. Its most recent approach to Earth was in 1861.

Compared with many other comets, Thatcher’s orbit is relatively stable, as the only planet with which it can experience close encounters is Earth. This means the meteors it sheds continue to follow roughly the same orbit.

Over the millennia, that shed debris has spread all around the comet’s vast orbit, meaning that for thousands of years, every time Earth intersects Comet Thatcher’s orbit, the Lyrids have been seen, as regular as clockwork.

One study of the orbits of Lyrid meteors even suggests the shower may have been active for at least a million years.

Across Australia, the Lyrids are best seen an hour before sunrise, when the radiant is at its highest [Brisbane 5am].
Museums Victoria/stellarium

These days, the Lyrids are usually a moderately active shower, producing somewhere between 10 and 20 fast, bright meteors per hour at their peak. Occasionally, though, the Lyrids have thrown up a surprise, with rates climbing far higher for a period of several hours.

The best of those outbursts seem to occur every 60 years or so, with the most recent occurring in 1982 when observed rates reached or exceeded 90 per hour.

No such outburst is predicted for 2018, but even in quiet years, the Lyrids are still a fun shower to observe.

From the USA, the radiant is well placed from late evening until early morning [Chicago 11pm].
Museums Victoria/stellarium

They are best seen from northern latitudes, but their radiant is far enough south for observers throughout Australia to observe them in the hours before dawn.

For observers at mid-northern latitudes, the Lyrid radiant reaches suitable altitude by about 11pm local time. Viewers in the southern hemisphere have to wait until the early hours of the morning before reasonable rates can be observed.

The forecast time of maximum this year favours observers in Australia and east Asia but the timing of maximum has been known to vary somewhat, so observers around the globe will likely be keeping their eyes peeled, just in case!

Perseids [N]

Active: July 17 – August 24

Maximum: August 12, 8pm UT – August 13, 8am UT = from August 12, 9pm BST (UK) = 10pm CEST (Europe) = 6pm EDT (East Coast, US) = 3pm PDT (West Coast, US) for 12 hours

ZHR: 110

Parent: Comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle

For observers in the northern hemisphere, the Perseids are a spectacular summer highlight. At their peak, rates often reach or exceed 100 meteors per hour, and they are famed for their frequent spectacular fireballs.

The Perseids are probably the best known and most widely observed of all modern meteor showers. They are remarkably consistent, with peak rates usually visible for a couple of evenings, and fall in the middle of the northern hemisphere summer holiday season. The warm nights and frequent clear skies at that time of year make the shower a real favourite!

Like the Lyrids, the Perseids have a long and storied history, having been observed for at least 2,000 years. Their parent comet, 109P/Swift-Tuttle, is a behemoth, with the largest nucleus of the known periodic comets – some 26km in diameter.

It has likely moved on its current orbit for tens of thousands of years, all the time laying down the debris that gives us our annual Perseid extravaganza. It will next swing past Earth in 2126 when it will be a spectacular naked eye object.

From the UK, the Perseids radiant is visible all night and summer is the perfect time for meteor watching [Greenwich 9pm].
Museums Victoria/stellarium

This year the forecast maximum for the Perseids favours observers in Europe, although given the length of peak activity, any location in the northern hemisphere has the potential to see a spectacular show on the night of August 12.

But don’t despair if it’s cloudy that night, as the Perseids have a relatively broad period of peak activity, meaning that good rates can be seen for a few days either side of their peak.

In 2018, the peak of the Perseid shower coincides with the New Moon, and so is totally unaffected by moonlight, which makes this an ideal year to observe the shower.

The further north you are, the earlier the shower’s radiant will be visible. But reasonable rates can typically be seen any time after about 10pm, local time. The later in the night you observe, the better the rates will be, as the radiant climbs higher into the sky.

It is not uncommon for enthusiastic observers to watch the shower until dawn on the night of maximum, seeing several hundred meteors in a single night.

A fantastic Perseids display from 2016 over Austria.
Flickr/Michael Karrer, CC BY-NC

Draconids [N]

Active: October 6-10

Maximum: October 9, 12:10am UT = 1:10am BST (UK) = 2:10am CEST (Europe)

ZHR: 10+

Parent: Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner

The Draconids are a fascinating meteor shower, although in most years, somewhat underwhelming. Unlike the previous showers, the Draconids are a relatively young meteor shower that can vary dramatically from one year to the next.

First observed less than a century ago, the Draconids (also known as the Giaocobinids) are tied to a Jupiter-family comet called 21P/Giacobini-Zinner.

That comet was the first to be visited by a spacecraft, and has frequent close encounters with Jupiter, which continually nudges its orbit around. These encounters also perturb the meteor stream the comet is laying down, sometimes enhancing rates at Earth and sometimes diminishing them.

In the early 20th century, it was realised that Comet Giacobini-Zinner’s orbit comes close enough to Earth that we might be able to see meteors as we plough through the debris it leaves behind.

This led to the first predictions of Draconid activity. Sure enough, in 1920, the great meteor observer W. F. Denning confirmed the existence of the shower, with a mere five meteors observed between October 6 and October 9.

In 1933 and 1946, the Draconids produced two of the greatest meteor displays of the 20th century – great storms, with peak rates of several thousand meteors per hour. In those years, Earth crossed the comet’s orbit just a month or two after the comet passed through perihelion (closest approach to the Sun), and Earth ploughed through dense material in the comet’s wake.

After 1946, the Draconids went quiet, all but vanishing from our skies. Jupiter had swung the comet onto a less favourable orbit. Only a few Draconids were seen in 1972, then again in 1985 and 1998.

The late 1990s saw a renaissance in our ability to predict and understand meteor showers, born of enhanced activity exhibited by the Leonid meteor shower. Using the techniques developed to study the Leonids, astronomers predicted enhanced activity from the Draconids in 2011, and the predicted outburst duly occurred, with rates of around 300 meteors per hour being observed.

Europe is well placed to catch some Draconids streaming from the eye of the dragon, near the star Rastaban [Paris 12:30am].
Museums Victoria/stellarium

This year comet Giacobini-Zinner once again passes through perihelion and swings close to Earth’s orbit. The chances are good that the shower will be active – albeit unlikely to produce a spectacular storm.

Modelling suggests that rates of 20 to 50 faint meteors per hour might be seen around 12:14am UT on October 9. Other models suggest that rates will peak about 45 minutes earlier, with lower rates of 15 to 20.

The Draconid radiant is circumpolar (that is, it never sets) for locations north of 44°N, and is highest in the sky before midnight. This year, the Moon is new at the time of the forecast peak, which is ideally timed for observers in Europe.

If skies are clear that evening, it is well worth heading out at around 11:30pm BST on October 8 (12:30am CEST on October 9) and spending a couple of hours staring north, just in case the Draconids put on another spectacular show.

Taurids [N/S]

Active: September 10 – December 10

Maxima: October 10 (Southern Taurids); November 12 (Northern Taurids)

ZHR: 5 + 5

Parent: Comet 2P/Encke

Of all the year’s meteor showers, the one that dumps the greatest amount of dust into Earth’s atmosphere are the Taurids. The inner Solar system contains a vast swathe of debris known as the Taurid stream. It is so spread out that Earth spends a quarter of the year passing through it.

In June, that debris spawns the Daytime Taurid meteor shower, which (as the name suggests) occurs during daylight hours, and is only really known thanks to radio observations.

After leaving the stream for a little while, Earth penetrates it again at the start of September, and activity continues right through until December. Hourly rates fluctuate up and down, with several distinct peaks and troughs through October and November.

The Taurid stream is complex – with at least two main components, known as the northern and southern branches. Typically, the Southern Taurids are active a little earlier in the year and reach their peak about a month before the northern branch.

During northern autumn, the Taurids can be seen radiating from the western sky before dawn [Paris 6:30am October 10].
Museums Victoria/stellarium

For the southern spring, the Taurids radiate from the northern sky before dawn [Melbourne 3:30am November 12].
Museums Victoria/stellarium

The Taurids are slow meteors and feature plenty of bright fireballs. So even though their rates are low, they are well worth looking out for, particularly when other showers are also active, such as the Draconids, the Orionids and the Leonids.

Put together, these showers make the northern autumn or the southern spring a great time to get out and look for natural fireworks.

Orionids [N/S]

Active: October 2 – November 7

Maximum: October 21

ZHR: 20+

Parent: Comet 1P/Halley

Twice a year, Earth runs through the stream of debris littered around the orbit of Comet 1P/Halley. Throughout the month of October this gives rise to the Orionid meteor shower.

The Orionids are a fairly reliable meteor shower with a long, broad maximum. Typically, peak rates can last for almost a week, centred on the nominal maximum date. Throughout that week, Orionid rates can fluctuate markedly, leading to a number of distinct maxima and minima.

Orionid meteors are fast – much faster than the Taurids that are active at the same of year. Like the Taurids, they are often bright, the result of the high speed at which the meteoroids hit Earth’s atmosphere.

Before sunrise, Orion stands upright in the southwest as seen from the northern hemisphere [Chicago 5am].
Museums Victoria/stellarium

But from the southern hemisphere Orion appears to be standing on his head, in the northern sky before dawn [Sydney 5am].
Museums Victoria/stellarium

The Orionid radiant rises in the late evening and is only really high enough in the sky for reasonable rates to be seen after midnight. As a result, the best rates are usually observed in the hours before dawn.

This works well this year, as the Moon will be in its waxing gibbous phase, setting some time after midnight and leaving the sky dark, allowing us to watch for pieces of the most famous comet of them all.

Geminids [N/S]

Active: December 4-17

Maximum: December 14, 12:30pm UT = Australia: December 14, 8pm AWST (WA) = 10:30pm (QLD) = 11:30pm AEST (NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = United States: December 14, 7:30am (EST) = 5:30am (PST) = 2:30am (Hawaii)

ZHR: 120

Parent: Asteroid 3200 Phaethon

As the year comes to a close, we reach the most reliable and spectacular of the annual meteor showers – the Geminids. Unlike the Perseids and the Lyrids, which have graced our skies for thousands of years, the Geminids are a relatively new phenomenon.

They were first observed just 150 years ago, and through the first part of the 20th century were a relatively minor shower. But since then rates have improved decade-on-decade, to the point where they are now the best of the annual showers, bar none.

The reason for their rapid evolution is that their orbit (and that of their parent body, the asteroid Phaethon) is shifting rapidly over time, precessing around the Sun (wobbling like a slow spinning top). As it does so, the centre of Phaethon’s orbit, and the centre of the Geminid stream, are moving ever closer to Earth.

For northern locations, the radiant rises shortly after sunset, and good rates can be seen from mid-evening onwards. For observers in the southern hemisphere, the radiant rises later, so good rates are delayed until later at night (as detailed in our 2015 report on the shower).

Although the time of maximum this year seems to favour observers in the Americas and Australia, peak rates from the Geminids usually last around 24 hours, and so good rates should be visible around the globe.

This year the maximum falls a day before the Moon reaches first quarter so the best rates are visible (after midnight, local time) when the Moon will have set and moonlight will not interfere.

Australia’s summer meteor shower, the consistent and spectacular Geminids in the early morning sky [Brisbane 4am].
Museums Victoria/stellarium

The Geminids appear high overhead over American skies in winter [Los Angeles midnight].
Museums Victoria/stellarium

Given that rates from the Geminids continue to climb, the estimated ZHR of 120 is likely to be somewhat conservative. Rates in excess of 130, and even as high as 200 per hour, have been seen in recent years.

Geminids are medium-speed meteors and are often bright. The individual meteors also seem to last just that bit longer than other showers, a fact likely related to their parent object’s rocky nature.

Wherever you are on the planet, the Geminids are a fantastic way to bring the year to an end, and we will hopefully be treated to a magnificent display this year.

Jonti Horner, Vice Chancellor’s Senior Research Fellow, University of Southern Queensland and Tanya Hill, Honorary Fellow of the University of Melbourne and Senior Curator (Astronomy), Museums Victoria

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Australian climate politics in 2017: a guide for the perplexed

Marc Hudson, University of Manchester

If you thought the climate debate has been ugly, you haven’t seen anything yet. In 2017 Australia will review its climate policies, and the process is not off to a good start.

To recap: with the release of the climate review’s terms of reference at the end of 2016, the federal environment and energy minister, Josh Frydenberg, appeared to place on the table an emissions intensity scheme (a widely supported form of carbon pricing). He then wisely went to Antarctica.

After its day in the sun, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull swiftly backtracked in part due to pressure from conservatives within the Coalition. By allowing a small group of politicians to take the most cost-effective policy off the table at the outset, Turnbull has made the coming year(s) that much harder to manage.

In the same week, Chief Scientist Alan Finkel reported his initial findings on the security of the National Electricity Market. He stated that his review “will continue to analyse all the options to ensure future security of power supply and compliance with climate obligations”.

And that was only 2016…

Reviews galore

The Finkel review of the National Electricity Market will be released in 2017. At the same time, the government will begin its climate policy review.

Unless the political circumstances change dramatically, the review will conclude by the end of this year.

Every step of the way will see protests, media stunts, hostile leaking and lobbying – public and private – by big actors. Climate and energy will consume the national news agenda, which will leave voters and viewers exhausted.

The terms of reference state that the review will look into:

the role of international carbon permits in reaching targets
a long-term emissions-reduction goal after 2030
asking the department to look at the impact of state-based policies, including the states’ own ambitious renewable energy targets, and whether this helps or hinders the national approach
the impact of policies on jobs, investment, trade competitiveness, households and regional Australia
Turnbull’s move to combine the energy and environment portfolios and whether this is the best way to tackle climate policy.

That there is nothing in this about an expanded and lengthened Renewable Energy Target will mean nothing to groups who want it discussed.

What can the government actually achieve now?

Now the government has ruled out the most promising policy option, who will be willing to lead the hamstrung review? Watch this space.

And what is left on the policy table? There are a couple of options:

expanding the large-scale Renewable Energy Target (RET) – this seems unlikely, given the amount of grief Turnbull and Frydenberg have been giving South Australia and Queensland over their own renewable targets of late
regulating the closure of coal-fired power stations – this seems unlikely too, given the failure of the “cash for closures” scheme under the Gillard Labor government
further restrictions on land use (unlikely to make the National Party very happy) and research into methane reductions from livestock (cue headlines about cow farts).

But asides from not making environmentalists particularly happy, these will not resolve the questions of grid security and energy pricing, both of which have the potential to cause political and economic mayhem.

Sharpen the pitchforks

Labor will use climate as a “wedge issue”, perhaps more gingerly and cautiously than Kevin Rudd did ahead of the 2007 election.

The government’s relations with the state governments will stay fraught. South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill has mooted a states-based emissions intensity scheme, but there is little appetite from other states, and business appears unenthusiastic

However, Weatherill may now be tempted to deflect blame for any South Australian energy problems onto Turnbull, who has made himself into a piñata.

Business is fuming and some odd coalitions are forming. The policy uncertainty (caused of course in no small part by the business sector’s failure to defend Gillard’s carbon tax) is aggravating them and scaring away investment. The worst possible outcome for business – a patchwork of state laws causing more work and less profit – is a distinct possibility.

Meanwhile, the gas industry has had its beady eye on electricity generation for well over a decade. It wants some sort of emissions trading scheme badly, so it can be in pole position as lots of coal-fired plants are closing soon.

Expect to see a “gas versus coal” battle, with coal pointing to gas prices rising, because it fetches more on the international market. The question of reservation policy – hated by many – may attract some strange allies.

The environmental movement will struggle over this. They are still bruised over the Rudd and Gillard policy battles, and an emissions intensity scheme is numbingly technical. In her excellent PhD thesis at the University of New South Wales, Rebecca Pearse argued that many activists have moved on to either supporting community-based renewables or contesting fossil-fuel infrastructure projects.

Of course, anti-green groups will also be hard at work, perhaps led by Coalition MPs Cory Bernardi and George Christensen and the Institute of Public Affairs. All have argued that Australia should do much less on climate change.

Expect anything

Finkel’s final electricity review is due in March. It will be interesting to see if the attacks that have happened to other scientists involved in climate and energy happen to him.

At some point in 2017 Al Gore will release a sequel to his 2006 documentary An Inconvenient Truth. Expect to see reactions to that.

The next big international negotiations, chaired by Fiji but hosted by Germany, will take place in November 2017.

Will President Trump have taken the United States out of the Paris Agreement by then? Will the US pull out of the entire climate convention? Or will Trump settle for just sending the office junior to the negotiations, while gutting his Environmental Protection Authority?

Nobody knows, probably not even the president-elect himself. A recent ANU study points to Trump-style disaffection taking hold in Australian politics.

There’s a hoary old Machiavelli quote that gets dragged out in articles like these about the political pain that transitions cause:

It ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.

In these dire times, it is unclear who could call an end – or a ceasefire – to what Guardian journalist Lenore Taylor calls “the stupid barren years of the carbon wars”. It’s what some public policy theorists call a “hurting stalemate”.

This is going to be bloody.

Marc Hudson, PhD Candidate, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of Manchester

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Look up! Your guide to some of the best meteor showers for 2017

Jonti Horner, University of Southern Queensland and Tanya Hill, Museum Victoria

After a disappointing 2016, when most of the annual major meteor showers were washed out by moonlight, 2017 looks far more promising.

Of the big three, the Quadrantids in January and Geminids in December are both visible in dark, moonless skies. Sadly, the Perseids in August will again be badly obscured by a waning gibbous Moon, but they are always worth watching.

Here we detail the predicted meteoric highlights for the coming year for the northern (N) and southern (S) hemispheres, and those visible for both (N/S).

New this year, for each shower we also give the maximum Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR): the maximum number of meteors per hour that could be seen, given absolutely ideal conditions.

The rates you actually observe will be lower than this value. The higher a shower’s radiant in the sky, and the darker the conditions, the closer the observed rates will get to the ZHR.

For this reason, if you want to see the best of a meteor shower, try to find a good, dark site (far from streetlights), and give your eyes at least half an hour to adjust to the darkness.

For each shower, the time of forecast maximum is given in Universal Time (UT), with conversions to local time for certain regions where the shower could be observed. For other regions simply convert from UT into your local timezone.

The parent is the comet or asteroid responsible for the debris through which the Earth passes each year that’s the cause of the annual meteor shower.

Quadrantids (N)

Active: December 28, 2016 – January 12, 2017

Forecast Maximum: January 3, 2pm UT = January 3, 6am PST (West Coast, US) = January 3, 11pm JST (Japan)

ZHR: ~120

Parent: Comet 96P/Machholz / Asteroid 2003 EH1

The Quadrantids get the new year off to a meteoric start. At their peak they can be spectacular, with rates often exceeding 100 meteors per hour.

For locations north of 40 degrees north, the shower’s radiant (the point on the sky from which the meteors appear) is circumpolar, which means it is always above the horizon.

The result? Quadrantid meteors can be seen throughout the hours of darkness. The best viewing is after midnight, local time, as the radiant climbs high into the morning sky.

For most of the shower’s fortnight of activity, only one or two meteors per hour might be seen. For that reason, the Quadrantids are often overlooked, but at their best, they are well worth the effort of setting an early morning alarm on a cold winter’s night.

The forecast maximum this year favours locations in the western part of North America and in far East Asia. Observers north of the Arctic Circle have the privilege of being able to watch the shower continuously, if they can brave the winter cold.

Lyrids [N/S]

Active: April, 16-25

Forecast Maximum: April 22, 12pm UT = April 22, 5am PDT (West Coast, US) = April 22, 10pm AEST (QLD/NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = April 22, 8pm AWST (WA)

ZHR: 18

Parent: Comet C/1861 G1, Thatcher

The Lyrids are a fairly consistent, moderately active meteor shower, producing around 15 to 20 meteors per hour at their peak.

Visible from either hemisphere, the Lyrids are best observed from northern latitudes, where the radiant climbs high in the sky before dawn. This year, the forecast peak favours observers in the Americas, although the precise timing of the maximum has been known to vary somewhat from year to year.

As seen from Australia, the Lyrid radiant is at its highest in the hour before sunrise.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

From America, the Lyrid radiant is high in the east before sunrise, with Venus and the crescent Moon low to the horizon and Saturn in the southern sky.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

The Lyrids have the longest recorded history of any meteor shower, with observations dating back to at least 687BC.

While the Lyrids are typically only a moderately active shower, they can occasionally be truly spectacular. Every 60 years or so, they produce rates much higher than normal, an event known as an outburst.

The most recent such event occurred in 1982 when, for a short time, rates topped 90 meteors per hour. In 1803 the shower was more spectacular still. Rates reached storm proportions, and the sky over the eastern states of the US was alight with meteors, rates of more than 700 per hour.

This year, unfortunately, no such enhanced activity is forecast. Nevertheless, the Lyrids are still worth a look, letting us see pieces of a comet that currently lies more than a hundred billion kilometres distant.

Eta Aquariids [S]

Active: April 19 – May 28

Forecast Maximum: May 6, 2am UT = May 6, 12pm AEST (QLD/NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = May 6, 10am AWST (WA)

ZHR: 50

Parent: Comet 1P/Halley

For observers in the southern hemisphere, the Eta Aquariids are one of the highlights of the meteor calendar.

Active in autumn, as the nights grow ever longer, the Eta Aquariids are best observed in the hours before dawn, when rates can climb as high as 40 or 50 meteors per hour.

Even for locations well south of the equator, the radiant does not rise until 1am or later, so this is definitely one to set the alarm for.

The Eta Aquariids are the stronger of two annual showers produced when Earth passes through debris shed by Comet 1P/Halley. We’ll come to its sister shower, the Orionids, later.

The debris shed by Comet Halley is spread in a wide band across Earth’s orbit, which results in the Eta Aquariids being active for a period of around six weeks. Peak rates occur for just a week or so around the forecast maximum.

In the hour before sunrise, the Eta Aquariids radiant is high in the eastern sky, with Venus and Mercury below.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Observers who brave the pre-dawn hours to observe the shower this year are in for an added treat, with Venus and Mercury putting on a spectacular show as the dawn twilight builds.

The Eta Aquariids themselves are fast meteors, and are often bright, continuing to make an impression as the sky brightens before dawn.

The Southern Delta Aquariids, Piscis Austrinids and Alpha Capricornids [N/S; S favoured]

Active: Early-July to Mid-August

Forecast Maxima: July 28-30

Combined ZHR: 35

Parent: Comet 96P/Machholz (Southern Delta Aquariids); Unknown (Piscis Austrinids); Comet 169P/NEAT (Alpha Capricornids

During late July and early August, three meteor showers combine to provide a nice spectacle for keen observers, particularly those in the southern hemisphere.

Given that the normally reliable and spectacular Perseids (mid August) are badly affected by moonlight this year, these showers allow observers to get their mid-year meteor fix.

These three showers, combined, favour observers in the southern hemisphere, though they can also be observed from northern latitudes. From both hemispheres the rates get better as the night goes on and the radiants rise, with the best rates seen in the hours after midnight.

A trio of meteor showers, as seen from the Southern Hemisphere around local midnight.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

The same meteor showers, as seen from the Northern Hemisphere around local midnight.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Of the three, the Southern Delta Aquariids are the most active, with a broad peak lasting around five days, centred on July 30. Their meteors are the fastest of the three showers, as well as the most numerous.

The Alpha Capricornids, by contrast, are relatively slow and infrequent (just five or so per hour), but are often spectacular, with a reputation as a fireball shower. When combined with the activity from the other two showers, they represent a great opportunity for budding astro-photographers to get some spectacular shots.

Orionids [N/S]

Active: October 2 – November 7

Forecast Maximum: October 21

ZHR: 20

Parent: Comet 1P/Halley

The Orionids are the second of the annual meteor showers associated with the most famous comet, 1P/Halley.

In October, the Earth passes slightly farther from the densest part of Halley’s debris stream than in May, so the Orionids are somewhat weaker than their sister shower.

This is more than offset by the ease with which they may be observed. The Orionid radiant reaches a reasonable altitude by around midnight, local time. As a result, the shower can yield good rates for several hours before the sky starts to brighten before dawn.

Before sunrise, Orion stands upright high in the south-west as seen from the northern hemisphere.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

From the southern hemisphere, Orion appears to stand on his head, in the northern sky before dawn.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Though peak rates are forecast to occur on October 21, the Orionid maximum is usually a broad and prolonged affair. Good rates can be seen for several days before and after the maximum, with several sub-maxima occurring as Earth passes through denser filaments of debris in the broader stream.

Orionid rates are supplemented by meteors from the Taurid stream, a minor shower active from September until December. Where the Orionids are fast, the Taurids are very slow but they often produce spectacular fireballs.

Geminids [N/S]

Active: December 4-1

Forecast Maximum: December 14, 6:30am UT = December 14, 1:30am EST (East Coast, US) = December 14, 5:30pm AEDT (NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = December 14, 4:30pm AEST (QLD) = December 14, 2:30pm AWST (WA)

ZHR: 120

Parent: Asteroid 3200 Phaethon

The Geminids are probably the most reliable and rewarding of the annual meteor showers. Visible from either hemisphere, they yield peak rates of well over a hundred meteors per hour.

Unlike some other showers, those peak rates persist for several hours (up to a day) so observers across the globe have the chance to see the shower at its best.

From locations well north of the equator the radiant rises just after sunset and good rates can be seen from the mid-evening onwards.

For the southern hemisphere the radiant rises later (mid-to-late evening). As the radiant climbs, so too will the number of meteors that can be seen.

The Geminid radiant travels across the northern sky, as seen from Perth.
Museums Victoria/Stellarium

Geminids are moderately fast meteors, and are often bright. They also seem to persist slightly longer in the sky than meteors from other showers.

For southern observers, they are a fantastic summer treat to end the meteoric year, but for those north of the equator, one shower remains that can occasionally throw up an unexpected festive treat.

Ursids [N only]

Active: December 17-26

Forecast Maximum: December 22, 3pm UT = December 22, 7am PST (West Coast, US) = December 22, 11pm JST (Japan)

ZHR: 10, variable

Parent: Comet 8P/Tuttle

The Ursids are the final shower of the year, and are only visible for locations in the northern hemisphere.

Ursid meteors radiate from within just 14 degrees of the north celestial pole, so the radiant only changes in altitude by 28 degrees over the course of a night!

In most years, the Ursids are a fairly minor shower, yielding only ten meteors per hour at their peak for dedicated observers. But in the past they have produced at least two major outbursts, and the maximum activity seems to vary somewhat from year to year.

The Ursid radiant as seen from Tokyo at 11pm, December 22.
Museums Victoria

No major outburst is forecast for this year, but the Ursids are a shower of surprises.

There is the possibility that the Earth will encounter a denser clump of debris around 15 minutes ahead of the time of forecast maximum. That debris, left behind by the shower’s parent comet, 8P/Tuttle, in 884AD, will likely have become quite dispersed in the 1,133 years since it was lain down. As a result, any increase to the observed rates will probably be relatively small.

But it could still be well worth a look, just in case the Ursids manage to surprise us once again.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

A guide to using drones to study wildlife: first, do no harm

Jarrod Hodgson and Lian Pin Koh

Technological advances have provided many benefits for environmental research. Sensors on southern elephant seals have been used to map the Southern Ocean, while tracking devices have given us a new view of mass animal migrations, from birds to zebras.

Miniaturisation of electronics and improvements in reliability and affordability mean that consumer drones (also known as unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs) are now improving scientific research in a host of areas. And they are growing more popular for wildlife management, as well as research.

Wildlife drones can be used in many different ways, from small multi-rotor units that can scare invasive birds away from crops, to fixed-wing aircraft that fly above rainforests to spot orangutan nests. UAVs have also been shown to provide more precise data than traditional ground-based techniques when it comes to monitoring seabird colonies.

Other industries, from mining to window-cleaning, are looking at using drone technology. Some forecasts predict that the global market for commercial applications of UAVs will be valued at more than US$127 billion. Given their usefulness in the biologist’s toolkit, the uptake of UAVs for environmental monitoring is likely to continue.

But this proliferation of drones raises questions about how best to regulate the use of these aircraft, and how to ensure that wildlife do not come to harm.

A UAV-mounted camera provides an aerial view of a Sumatran elephant (*Elephas maximus sumatranus*) in North Sumatra.
L. P. Koh

Wildlife disturbance

Biologists carrying out field studies are typically interested in animals’ natural state, or how their behaviour changes when conditions are altered. So it is important to know whether the UAVs disturb the animals and, if so, exactly how.

Of course, different species in different environments are likely to have very different responses to the presence of a UAV. This will also depend on the type of UAV and how it is used. Our current understanding of wildlife responses is limited.

A team of French and South African biologists observed the reaction of semi-captive and wild birds to UAVs. They found that the approach angle had a significant impact on the birds’ reaction, but approach speed, UAV colour and flight repetition did not.

In polar regions, where UAVs may be particularly useful for sampling inaccessible areas, researchers found that Adélie penguins were more alert when a UAV was in range, particularly at low altitudes.

These studies, and similar observational studies on other animals besides birds, provide an initial understanding of wildlife behaviour. But the animals’ behaviour is only one aspect of their response – we still need to know what happens to their physiology.

Cardiac bio-loggers fitted to a small number of free-roaming American black bears in northwestern Minnesota have shown that UAV flights increased the bears’ heart rates by as much as 123 beats per minute. Even an individual in its winter hibernation den showed stress responses to a UAV flying above.

Interestingly, the bears rarely showed any behavioural response to the drones. This shows that just because animals do not appear visually disturbed, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re not stressed.

A code of practice

We have developed a code of best practice, published today in the journal Current Biology, which seeks to mitigate or alleviate potential UAV disturbance to wildlife. It advocates the precautionary principle in lieu of sufficient evidence, encouraging researchers to recognise that wildlife responses are varied, can be hard to detect, and could have severe consequences.

Jarrod Hodgson launches a fixed-wing UAV on Macquarie Island.
J. Hodgson

It also provides practical recommendations. The code encourages the use of equipment that minimises the stimulus to wildlife. Using minimum-disturbance flight practices (such as avoiding threatening approach trajectories or sporadic flight movements) is advised. The code also recognises the importance of following civil aviation rules and effective maintenance and training schedules, and using animal ethics processes to provide oversight to UAV experiments.

The code isn’t just food for thought for biologists. It is relevant to all UAV users and regulators, from commercial aerial videographers to hobbyists. Unintentionally or otherwise, such users may find themselves piloting drones close to wildlife.

Our code urges the UAV community to be responsible operators. It encourages awareness of the results of flying in different environments and the use of flight practices that result in minimum wildlife disturbance.

Low-impact conservation

As researchers continue to develop and refine UAV wildlife monitoring techniques, research that quantifies disturbance should be prioritised. This research will need to be multi-faceted, because responses could vary between species or individuals, as well as over time and in different environments. Greater knowledge could help us to draw up species-specific guidelines for drone use, to minimise disturbance on a case-by-case basis.

UAVs are a useful wildlife monitoring tool. We need to proactively develop and implement low-impact monitoring techniques. Doing so will expand our technological arsenal in the battle to manage Earth’s precious and increasingly threatened wildlife.

Jarrod Hodgson, PhD Candidate and Lian Pin Koh, Associate Professor

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Look up! Your guide to some of the best meteor showers for 2016

Jonti Horner, University of Southern Queensland and Tanya Hill, Museum Victoria

Many meteor showers, caused by the Earth passing through streams of debris left behind by comets and asteroids, occur as regularly as clockwork, year on year. But whether you can see a great display in the night sky from a given shower varies from year to year, for a variety of reasons.

So what will be the highlights of the coming year, 2016?

Unfortunately, several of the year’s best showers (including the wonderful Geminids) will be wiped out by moonlight in 2016, so aren’t mentioned in this list. Fortunately, though, several good showers remain.

If a shower can only be seen from the northern hemisphere, we’ll denote that with an (N). For southern hemisphere showers, we’ll use (S), and for those visible from both hemispheres, we’ll use (N/S).

For each shower, the time of forecast maximum is given in Universal Time (UT), with conversions to local time for certain regions where the shower could be observed (such as the east to west coast of the US, or the east to west coast of Australia). For other regions where the shower is visible, simply convert from UT into your local timezone.

The Quadrantids (N)

Active: December 28, 2015 – January 12, 2016
Forecast Maximum: January 4, 8am UT = 3am EST (East Coast, US) = 12am PST (West Coast, US)

For observers in the northern hemisphere, the year starts with a bang. The Quadrantids are one of the year’s big three meteor showers, yielding rates that can exceed 100 or even 150 meteors per hour.

Unfortunately, their peak is very short, with rates only remaining above about a quarter of their peak for around a day. As a result of this, and the usually highly inclement winter weather in the northern hemisphere at Quadrantid peak, they are often overlooked.

The Quadrantids radiate from the northern part of the northern hemisphere’s sky, with their source rising higher in the sky during the early hours of morning.

The radiant of the shower is actually circumpolar for most of the northern hemisphere, so close to the pole that it never sets. For the same reason, the shower is impossible to observe from the southern hemisphere, where the radiant never rises.

Moonlight will not interfere with the Quadrantids in 2016. So, if skies are clear, it is possible that observers could see a great show. While Quadrantids can be seen at any time during the hours of darkness, the best rates are garnered in the morning hours, as the radiant rises higher into the sky before dawn.

A nice spectacle to start the new year.

The Eta Aquariids (S and low latitudes N)

Active: April 19, 2016 – May 28, 2016
Forecast Maximum: May 5, 8pm UT = May 6, 6am AEST (QLD/NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = May 6, 3am AWST (WA)

The Eta Aquariids are another shower best seen in the early hours of the morning. But they can be well worth setting your alarm early to observe.

Fragments of the most famous of comets, 1P/Halley, the Eta Aquariids are a broad meteor stream. It takes the Earth around six weeks to cross their full width.

The maximum occurs around May 5, and unlike the Quadrantids, the peak is broad. Rates often exceed 30 meteors per hour, in the hours before dawn, for over a week around the peak.

The Eta Aquariids as seen from Brisbane, an hour before sunrise.
Museum Victoria/Stellarium

Eta Aquariids are fast meteors, hitting Earth’s atmosphere at 66km/s. They are often truly spectacular when seen shortly after the radiant rises, a few hours before dawn. These Earth-grazers often span the sky from horizon to horizon, leave lingering smoky trails, and are definitely an eye-catching sight.

The peak of the shower in 2016 occurs around the time of New Moon making it an ideal year to check out this enigmatic morning shower.

Piscis Austrinids, Southern Delta Aquariids and Alpha Capricornids (N/S)

Active: Late-July/Early-August
Forecast Maximum: July 28-30, 2016, around midnight local time

In the middle of the northern hemisphere summer, the attention of meteor observers usually turns to the Perseids, one of the highlights of the year. But a number of more minor showers are also active towards the end of July and start of August, and between them, they combine to give reasonable rates for observers in both hemispheres.

While the Perseids (which we’ll say more about in a moment) are best seen from northern skies, the Piscis Austrinids, Southern Delta Aquariids and Alpha Capricornids are visible across the globe and are actually easier to observe from the southern hemisphere than the north.

While each of the showers is relatively minor (at least compared to streams like the Perseids), they combine to yield 20 or 30 meteors per hour at their maxima, which all fall together in a cluster around the July 28-30.

A trio of meteor showers, as seen from the Southern Hemisphere around local midnight.
Museum Victoria/Stellarium

The new moon falls on August 2, which means the maxima of these showers can be observed under dark skies, giving an ideal opportunity to check out these less well known showers.

Of the three showers, the Southern Delta Aquariids are the most active. They display several sub-maxima around July 26-31, reaching around 15 to 20 meteors per hour under perfect conditions.

The other two showers are weaker, perhaps yielding around five meteors per hour each at their peak (though they have occasionally exhibited higher rates). But the Alpha Capricornids have a reputation for producing bright, slow, spectacular fireballs, so are well worth looking out for.

The best viewing for these showers is around midnight, local time, though they can be seen for most of the night.

The same meteor showers, as seen from the Northern Hemisphere around local midnight.
Museum Victoria/Stellarium

The Perseids (N)

Active: July 17, 2016 – August 24, 2016
Forecast Maximum: August 12, 1-4pm UT = 9am-12pm EDT (East Coast, US) = 6-9am PDT (West Coast, US) = 10pm-1am, August 13 JST (Japan)

The Perseids are only really accessible for observers in the northern hemisphere, but from there, they can be truly spectacular.

They occur in the middle of the northern hemisphere summer, during the school holidays there, and almost feel designed to get people interested in astronomy.

The Perseids are possibly the most easily accessible of the three big ones. Where the Geminids and Quadrantids occur in the often bitter depths of the northern winter, the Perseids are well suited to camping, and relaxation on a pleasant warm night.

The Perseid radiant reaches a useful altitude at around 10pm or 11pm, local time. From then on, conditions continue to improve through the early hours of the morning.

During the early hours of the morning, the Perseid Radiant rises ever higher, resulting in more visible meteors.

In any given year, at maximum, the Perseids can yield in excess of 100 meteors per hour. But 2016 could be unusually good. Calculations show that the Perseid debris stream has been nudged by the gravitational influence of Jupiter, bringing the densest part closer to Earth’s orbit.

As a result, Perseid rates promise to be particularly high. It is quite feasible that maximum rates could exceed 150 per hour.

In addition, 2016’s peak may feature several sub-maxima, as Earth passes through concentrations of dust laid down by the Perseid’s parent comet, 109P/Swift-Tuttle, during previous perihelion passages.

This is particularly important for observers in Europe. On the night of August 11 and morning of August 12, it is likely that these enhanced rates might reach, or even surpass, the number of meteors to be seen at the traditional time of maximum, which falls some 14 hours later.

Wherever you are in the northern hemisphere, the nights of August 11 and 12 are a prime time to watch for the Perseids. Perseids are fast meteors, often bright and eye-catching, and make a good excuse for a camping trip.

The Ursids (N)

Active: December 17 – 26, 2016
Forecast Maximum: December 22, 9am UT = 4am EST (East Coast, US) = 1am PST (West Coast, US) = 6pm JST (Japan)

Moonlight unfortunately interferes with the maxima of all the main meteor showers of the final third of the year, washing out the peaks of the Orionids, the Leonids and the Geminids.

At the very end of 2016, however, comes a northern-hemisphere-only shower that is often overlooked, the Ursids. Ursid meteors radiate from a point just 14 degrees from the north celestial pole.

As a result, their radiant is circumpolar (never sets) for all locations north of a latitude of 14 degrees. The further north you live, the higher the radiant sits in the sky, meaning that Ursid meteors can be observed throughout the hours of darkness.

The Ursid Radiant as seen from Tokyo at midnight December 23.
Museum Victoria/Stellarium

The Ursids occur at the northern-hemisphere mid-winter. This results in the unusual situation that it is possible for people in the Arctic Circle to observe a meteor shower in the middle of the day.

In most years, the Ursids are only a moderately active shower. Around maximum, rates usually reach just about ten per hour. But on a couple of occasions in the past 50 years, the Ursids have produced outbursts, with rates reaching or exceeding 50 per hour.

Given how poorly observed and characterised the Ursids are, it may well be that several other such outbursts were missed. Indeed, there have certainly been several other years in which observed rates were moderately higher than usual.

While no outburst is explicitly forecast for this year, the Ursid meteor shower could prove a very nice way to end another year of meteor observing.

For more information on the meteor showers throughout 2016, check out the International Meteor Organisation’s 2016 meteor calendar.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Travelling Guide to Health Care

The link below is to an article that provides something of a guide to health care around the world.

For more visit:
http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2015/08/10/430359659/if-you-fall-ill-abroad-should-you-seek-local-help-or-head-home

Lyrids [N/S; N favoured]

Active: April 14–30

Maximum: April 22, 1pm UTC = 11pm AEST (Qld) = 7am CST = 3am Hawaii time

ZHR: 18

Parent: Comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher

Eta Aquariids [S]

Active: April 19–May 28

Maximum: May 6, 3am UTC = 1pm AEST (Qld/NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = 11am AWST (WA)

ZHR: 50+

Parent: Comet 1P/Halley

Perseids [N]

Active: July 17–August 24

Maximum: August 12, 7pm–10pm UTC = 8pm–11pm BST = August 13, 4am–7am JST

ZHR: 110

Parent: Comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle

Aurigids [N favoured]

Active: August 28–September 5

Maximum: Potential Outburst on August 31, peaking between 9:15pm–9:40pm UTC = 10:15pm–10:40pm BST = 11:15pm–11:40pm CEST = September 1, 1:15am–1:40am Gulf Standard Time = September 1, 5:15am–5:40am AWST (WA)

ZHR: 50–100 (?)

Parent: Comet C/1911 N1 Kiess

Geminids [N/S]

Active: December 4–17

Maximum: December 14, 7am UTC = 6pm AEDT (NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = 3pm AWST (WA) = 2am EST

ZHR: 150

Parent: Asteroid 3200 Phaethon

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Quadrantids [N]

Active: December 28 – January 12

Maximum: January 4, 8:20am UTC = 8:20am GMT = 3:20am EST = 12:20am PST

ZHR: 120 (variable, can reach ~200)

Parent: It’s complicated… (Comet 96P/Macholz and asteroid 2003 EH1)

Lyrids [N/S; N preferred]

Active: April 14 – 30

Maximum: Variable – between April 21, 10:40pm UTC and April 22, 9:40am UTC (April 22 9:40am UTC = 4:40am EST = 1:40am PST)

ZHR: 18 (variable, can reach ~90)

Parent: Comet C/1861 G1 Thatcher

Eta Aquariids [S]

Active: April 19 – May 28

Maximum: May 5, 9pm UTC = May 6, 7am AEST (Qld/NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = May 6, 4am AWST (WA) = May 6, 6am JST

ZHR: 50+

Parent: Comet 1P/Halley

Perseids [N]

Active: July 17 – August 24

Maximum: August 12, 1pm – 4pm UTC = 3am – 6am HST = 10pm – August 13, 1am JST + filament passage ~3 hours before the main peak

ZHR: 110

Parent: Comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle

Orionids [N/S]

Active: October 2 – November 7

Maximum: October 21

ZHR: 20+

Parent: 1P/Halley

Geminids [N/S]

Active: December 4 – 17

Maximum: December 14, 12:50am UTC = 11:50am AEDT (NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas) = 8:50am AWST (WA) = 5:50pm EST (evening of December 13)

ZHR: 150

Parent: Asteroid 3200 Phaethon

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Quadrantids [N]

Active: December 28 – January 12

Maximum: January 4, 2:20am UT = 2:20am GMT = 3:20am CET

ZHR: 120 (variable, can reach ~200)

Parent: It’s complicated (comet 96P/Macholz and asteroid 2003 EH1)

Alpha Centaurids [S]

Active: January 31 – February 20

Maximum: February 8, 1:00pm UT = February 8, 9pm (WA) = February 8, 11pm (QLD) = February 9, 12am (NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas)

ZHR: Variable; typically 6, but can exceed 25

Parent: Unknown

Eta Aquariids [S preferred]

Active: April 19 – May 28

Maximum: May 6, 2pm UT = May 6, 10pm (WA) = May 7, 12am (QLD/NSW/ACT/Vic/Tas)

ZHR = 40+

Parent: Comet 1P/Halley

Southern Delta Aquariids, Piscis Austrinids and Alpha Capricornids [N/S; S favoured]

Active: Early-July to Mid-August

Maximum: July 28 – 30

Combined ZHR: 35

Parent: Comet 96P/Macholz (Southern Delta Aquariids); Unknown (Piscis Austrinids); Comet 169P/NEAT (Alpha Capricornids)

Taurids [N/S]