For decades, scientists puzzled over the plastic ‘missing’ from our oceans – but now it’s been found


Britta Denise Hardesty, CSIRO and Chris Wilcox, CSIRO

You’ve probably heard that our oceans have become a plastic soup. But in fact, of all the plastic that enters Earth’s oceans each year, just 1% has been observed floating on the surface. So where is the rest of it?

This “missing” plastic has been a longstanding scientific question. To date, the search has focused on oceanic gyres such as the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, the water column (the part of the ocean between the surface and the sea bed), the bottom of the ocean, and the stomachs of marine wildlife.

But our new research suggests ocean plastic is being transported back onshore and pushed permanently onto land away from the water’s edge, where it often becomes trapped in vegetation.

Of course, plastic has been reported on beaches around the world for decades. But there has been little focus on why and how coastal environments are a sink for marine debris. Our findings have big implications for how we tackle ocean plastic.

New research shows a significant amount of plastic pollution from our oceans ends up back on land, where it gets trapped.

The hunt for marine pollution

Our separate, yet-to-be-published research has found around 90% of marine debris that enters the ocean remains in the “littoral zone” (the area of ocean within 8km of the coast). This new study set out to discover what happens to it.

We collected data on the amount and location of plastic pollution every 100 kilometres around the entire coast of Australia between 2011 and 2016. Debris was recorded at 188 locations along the Australian coastline. Of this, 56% was plastic, followed by glass (17%) and foam (10%).

Data was recorded approximately every 100 kilometres along the coast of Australia. Of the marine debris recorded, more than half was plastic.

The debris was a mix of litter from people and deposition from the ocean. The highest concentrations of plastic pollution were found along coastal backshores – areas towards the inland edge of the beach, where the vegetation begins. The further back from the water’s edge we went, the more debris we found.

The amount of marine debris, and where it ends up, is influenced by onshore wave activity and, to a lesser extent, wind activity. Densely populated areas and those where the coast was easily accessible were hotspots for trapped plastics.




Read more:
Stop shaming and start empowering: advertisers must rethink their plastic waste message


Think about what you see on your beach. Smaller debris is often found near the water’s edge, while larger items such as drink bottles, plastic bags and crisp packets are often found further back from the water, often trapped in vegetation.

We also found more debris near urban areas where rivers and creeks enter the ocean. It could be that our trash is being trapped by waterways before it gets to the sea. We’re finding similar patterns in other countries we’re surveying around the Asia Pacific and beyond.

This pollution kills and maims wildlife when they mistake it for food or get tangled in it. It can damage fragile marine ecosystems by smothering sensitive reefs and transporting invasive species and is potentially a threat to human health if toxins in plastics make their way through the food chain to humans.

It can also become an eyesore, damaging the economy of an area through reduced tourism revenue.

Onshore waves, wind and areas with denser human populations influences where and how much marine debris there is along our coastlines.
CSIRO

Talking rubbish

Our findings highlight the importance of studying the entire width of coastal areas to better understand how much, and where, debris gets trapped, to inform targeted approaches to managing all this waste.

Plastic pollution can be reduced through local changes such as water refill stations, rubbish bins, incentives and awareness campaigns. It can also be reduced through targeted waste management policies to reduce, reuse and recycle plastics. We found container deposit schemes to be a particularly effective incentive in reducing marine pollution.




Read more:
We organised a conference for 570 people without using plastic. Here’s how it went


This discussion is particularly timely. The National Plastics Summit in Canberra last week brought together governments, industry and non-government organisations to identify new solutions to the plastic waste challenge, and discuss how to meet targets under the National Waste Policy Action Plan. Understanding that so much of our debris remains local, and trapped on land, provides real opportunities for successful management of our waste close to the source. This is particularly critical given the waste export ban starting July 1 at the latest.

Plastic in our oceans is increasing. It’s clear from our research that waste management strategies on land must accommodate much larger volumes of pollution than previously estimated. But the best way to keep plastic from our ocean and land is to stop putting it in.

Arianna Olivelli contributed to this article, and the research upon which it was based.




Read more:
Here is a global solution to the plastic waste crisis – and A$443 million to get it started


The Conversation


Britta Denise Hardesty, Principal Research Scientist, Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, CSIRO and Chris Wilcox, Senior Research Scientist, CSIRO

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Why drought-busting rain depends on the tropical oceans


Andrew King, University of Melbourne; Andy Pitman, UNSW; Anna Ukkola, Australian National University; Ben Henley, University of Melbourne, and Josephine Brown, University of Melbourne

Recent helpful rains dampened fire grounds and gave many farmers a reason to cheer. But much of southeast Australia remains in severe drought.

Australia is no stranger to drought, but the current one stands out when looking at rainfall records over the past 120 years. This drought has been marked by three consecutive extremely dry winters in the Murray-Darling basin, which rank in the driest 10% of winters since 1900.

Despite recent rainfall the southeast of Australia remains in the grip of a multi-year drought.
Bureau of Meteorology

So what’s going on?

There has been much discussion on whether human-caused climate change is to blame. Our new study explores Australian droughts through a different lens.




Read more:
Rain has eased the dry, but more is needed to break the drought


Rather than focusing on what’s causing the dry conditions, we investigated why it’s been such a long time since we had widespread drought-breaking rain. And it’s got a lot to do with how the temperature varies in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

Our findings suggest that while climate change does contribute to drought, blame can predominately be pointed at the absence of the Pacific Ocean’s La Niña and the negative Indian Ocean Dipole – climate drivers responsible for bringing wetter weather.

Understanding the Indian Ocean Dipole.

What’s the Indian Ocean Dipole?

As you may already know, the Pacific Ocean influences eastern Australia’s climate through El Niño conditions (associated with drier weather) and La Niña conditions (associated with wetter weather).

The lesser known cousin of El Niño and La Niña across the Indian Ocean is called the Indian Ocean Dipole. This refers to the difference in ocean temperature between the eastern and western sides of the Indian Ocean. It modulates winter and springtime rainfall in southeastern Australia.




Read more:
Dipole: the ‘Indian Niño’ that has brought devastating drought to East Africa


When the Indian Ocean Dipole is “negative”, there are warmer ocean temperatures in the east Indian Ocean, and we see more rain over much of Australia. The opposite is true for “positive” Indian Ocean Dipole events, which bring less rain.

The Murray-Darling Basin experiences high rainfall variability, with decade-long droughts common since observations began. The graph shows seasonal rainfall anomalies from a 1961-1990 average with major droughts marked.
Author provided

What does it mean for the drought?

When the drought started to take hold in 2017 and 2018, we didn’t experience an El Niño or strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. These are two dry-weather conditions we might expect to see at the start of a drought.

Rather, conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans were near neutral, with little to suggest a drought would develop.

So why are we in severe, prolonged drought?

The problem is we haven’t had either a La Niña or a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event since winter 2016. Our study shows the lack of these events helps explain why eastern Australia is in drought.

For the southeast of Australia in particular, La Niña or negative Indian Ocean Dipole events provide the atmosphere with suitable conditions for persistent and widespread rainfall to occur. So while neither La Niña or a negative Indian Ocean Dipole guarantee heavy rainfall, they do increase the chances.

What about climate change?

While climate drivers are predominately causing this drought, climate change also contributes, though more work is needed to understand what role it specifically plays.

Drought is more complicated and multidimensional than simply “not much rain for a long time”. It can be measured with a raft of metrics beyond rainfall patterns, including metrics that look at humidity levels and evaporation rates.

What we do know is that climate change can exacerbate some of these metrics, which, in turn, can affect drought.




Read more:
Is Australia’s current drought caused by climate change? It’s complicated


Climate change might also influence climate drivers, though right now it’s hard to tell how. A 2015 study suggests that under climate change, La Niña events will become more extreme. Another study from earlier this month suggests climate change is driving more positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, bringing even more drought.

Unfortunately, regional-scale projections from climate models aren’t perfect and we can’t be sure how the ocean patterns that increase the chances of drought-breaking rains will change under global warming. What is clear is there’s a risk they will change, and strongly affect our rainfall.

Putting the drought in context

Long periods when a La Niña or a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event were absent characterised Australia’s past droughts. This includes two periods of more than three years that brought us the Second World War drought and the Millennium drought.

The longer the time without a La Niña or negative Indian Ocean Dipole event, the more likely the Murray-Darling Basin is in drought.

In the above graph, the longer each line continues before stopping, the longer the time since a La Niña or negative Indian Ocean Dipole event occurred. The lower the lines travel, the less rainfall was received in the Murray Darling basin during this period. This lets us compare the current drought to previous droughts.

During the current drought (black line) we see how the rainfall deficit continues for several years, almost identically to how the Millennium drought played out.

But then the deficit increases strongly in late 2019, when we had a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

So when will this drought break?

This is a hard question to answer. While recent rains have been helpful, we’ve developed a long-term rainfall deficit in the Murray-Darling Basin and elsewhere that will be hard to recover from without either a La Niña or negative Indian Ocean Dipole event.




Read more:
Weather bureau says hottest, driest year on record led to extreme bushfire season


The most recent seasonal forecasts don’t predict either a negative Indian Ocean Dipole or La Niña event forming in the next three months. However, accurate forecasts are difficult at this time of year as we approach the “autumn predictability barrier”.

This means, for the coming months, the drought probably won’t break. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. We can only hope conditions improve.The Conversation

Andrew King, ARC DECRA fellow, University of Melbourne; Andy Pitman, Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW; Anna Ukkola, Research Fellow, Australian National University; Ben Henley, Research Fellow in Climate and Water Resources, University of Melbourne, and Josephine Brown, Lecturer, University of Melbourne

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Acidic oceans are corroding the tooth-like scales of shark skin



CT scan of a catshark hatchling head. Note the ridged scales.
Rory Cooper, Kyle Martin & Amin Garbout/Natural History Museum London, Author provided

Rory Cooper, University of Sheffield

Shark skin might look perfectly smooth, but inspect it under a microscope and you’ll notice something strange. The entire outer surface of a shark’s body is actually covered in sharp, little scales known as denticles. More remarkable still, these denticles are incredibly similar to human teeth, as they’re also comprised of dentine and enamel-like materials.

Your dentist will no doubt have warned you that acidic drinks like fizzy cola damage your teeth. This is because acid can dissolve the calcium and phosphate in the enamel tooth covering. For the first time, scientists have discovered a similar process acting on the tooth-like scales of sharks in the ocean.




Read more:
How we uncovered the feeding habits of sharks, thanks to plankton ‘post codes’


The carbon dioxide (CO₂) that humans release into the atmosphere doesn’t just heat the planet. As more of it dissolves in the ocean, it’s gradually increasing the acidity of seawater. In the past 200 years, the ocean has absorbed 525 billion tonnes of CO₂ and become 30% more acidic as a result. Now scientists worry that the lower pH is affecting one of the ocean’s top predators.

Denticles have sharp ridges and are arranged in an overlapping pattern, similar to chainmail.
Rory Cooper, Author provided

An unwelcome sea change

Over hundreds of millions of years, the denticles that make up shark skin have evolved to allow sharks to thrive in different environments. Different species have distinct denticle shapes and patterns that enable a range of remarkable functions. I’ve spent the last four years attempting to understand how the development of these scales is genetically controlled in shark embryos, and how their intricate details give each species an edge.

Denticles have highly specialised ridges which help reduce drag by up to 10%, allowing sharks to swim further and faster while using less energy. This works in a similar fashion to the ridges in the hulls of speed boats, which help the vessel move more efficiently through the water. In fact, these scales are so effective at reducing drag that scientists and engineers have long tried to create shark skin-inspired materials for boats and aircraft that can help them travel further on less fuel.

A catshark embryo about 80 days after fertilisation.
Rory Cooper, Kyle Martin & Amin Garbout/Natural History Museum London, Author provided

The patterning of denticles also works as a defensive armour, which protects sharks from their environment and from other predators. Some female sharks – such as the small-spotted catshark – have even developed a region of enlarged denticles which provide protection from a male shark’s bites during mating.

The changing chemistry of the ocean has been linked to coral bleaching, but its effect on other marine animals is less clear. To address this, researchers exposed puffadder shysharks – a species found off the coast of South Africa – to different levels of acidity in aquariums, and used a high-resolution imaging technique to examine the effect of acid exposure on their skin. After just nine weeks, they found that increased water acidity had weakened the surfaces of their denticles.

The puffadder shyshark (Haploblepharus edwardsii) is a slow moving species that lives on the sea floor.
Derekkeats/Wikipedia, CC BY-SA

Corrosion and weakening of the denticle surface could degrade the highly specialised drag-reducing ridges, affecting the ability of these sharks to swim and hunt. Many shark species are top-level predators, so if they’re not able to hunt as effectively, this might have an unpredictable impact on the population size of their prey and other animals in the complex marine environment. Some species of shark need to swim constantly to keep oxygen-rich water flowing over their gills and to expel CO₂ – another process which might be hindered by increased drag.




Read more:
Sharks: one in four habitats in remote open ocean threatened by longline fishing


Sharks belong to an ancient group of vertebrates known as the cartilaginous fishes, which split from the bony fishes – a lineage that later gave rise to humans – roughly 450 million years ago. Sharks, and other cartilaginous fish like rays, arose long before the dinosaurs, and have outlived multiple mass extinction events. But the rate of change in the marine environment over the last few centuries is an unprecedented challenge. These ancient predators may struggle to adapt to the fastest known change in ocean chemistry in the last 50 million years.The Conversation

Rory Cooper, PhD Researcher in Evolutionary Developmental Biology, University of Sheffield

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Fish larvae float across national borders, binding the world’s oceans in a single network


Larval black sea bass, an important commercial species along the US Atlantic coast.
NOAA Fisheries/Ehren Habeck

Nandini Ramesh, University of California, Berkeley; James Rising, London School of Economics and Political Science, and Kimberly Oremus, University of Delaware

Fish populations are declining around the world, and many countries are trying to conserve them by regulating their fishing industries. However, controlling fishing locally may not do enough to strengthen fish populations. Often one nation’s fish stocks depend on the spawning grounds of a neighboring country, where fish release eggs and sperm into the water and larvae hatch from fertilized eggs.

We do research on oceans, climate and fisheries. In a recent study, we showed that global fisheries are even more tightly connected than previously understood. The world’s coastal marine fisheries form a single network, thanks to the drift of larvae along ocean currents.

This suggests that country-by-country fishery management may be fundamentally insufficient. If a fish species that provides food to one country should decline, the amount of fish spawn, or eggs and larvae, riding the ocean currents from there to other countries would also decline dramatically, resulting in further loss of fish elsewhere.

Many countries live with this risk, although they may not realize it. To manage fisheries effectively, nations must understand where the fish in their territories originate.

Ocean currents affect the speed at which fish eggs and larvae drift and vary through the year. This map shows surface current speeds for January: yellow = fastest, dark blue = slowest. Each country’s territory is highlighted with red dots during the month of maximum spawning activity in that country. In each territory, a different number of species spawn in each month of the year. The red dots appear in the month during which the largest number of species spawn in that territory.

Crossing national borders

Fish don’t recognize political boundaries, and regularly travel internationally. Scientists have tracked adult fish movements using electronic tags, and have shown that a few species migrate over long distances.

Countries and territories have negotiated agreements to ensure sustainable sharing of migratory fish. One such agreement joins several nations in the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission to ensure that the territories fish cross share them sustainably.

But fish eggs and larvae are much harder to follow. Many species lay eggs in large numbers that float near the ocean surface. When they hatch, larvae measure a few millimeters long and continue to drift as plankton until they grow large enough to swim. During these stages of the life cycle, ocean currents sweep fish spawn across international boundaries.

Simulating the journeys of eggs and larvae

Like weather on land, the pattern of ocean currents varies with the seasons and can be predicted. These currents are typically sluggish, traveling about an inch per second, or less than 0.1 miles per hour.

There are a few exceptions: Currents along the eastern coasts of continents, like the Gulf Stream in North America or the Kuroshio in Asia, and along the equator can be significantly faster, reaching speeds of 2 miles per hour. Even a gentle current of 0.1 miles per hour can carry spawn 40 miles over a month, and some species can float for several months.

Government and academic scientists use a vast network of satellites, moored instruments and floating buoys to monitor these surface flows. Using this information, we performed a computer simulation of where drifting particles would be carried over time. Scientists have used this type of simulation to study the spread of marine plastic pollution and predict where debris from plane crashes at sea could have washed ashore.

Different fish species spawn in different seasons, and a single species may spawn in several months at different locations. We matched the seasons and locations of spawning for over 700 species with ocean current data, and simulated where their spawn would drift. Then, using records of where those species have been fished, and information about how suitable conditions are for each species in different regions, we deduced what fraction of the fish caught in each country arrived from other countries because of ocean currents.

A small-world network

Scientists and policymakers can learn a lot by studying these international connections. Each species that floats across international boundaries during its plankton stage represents a linkage between countries. These linkages span the world in a dense, interconnected network.

Each color represents a region in the network of fish larvae connections. This map shows the strongest 467 connections among a total of 2,059 that the authors modeled.
Nandini Ramesh, James Rising and Kimberly Oremus, CC BY-ND

At a global level, this network of connections has an important property: It is a small-world network. Small-world networks connect regions that are far apart to each other by just a few steps along the network. The concept is rooted in social scientist Stanley Milgram’s 1960s experiments with social networks, which found that it was possible for a letter to reach almost any total stranger by passing through six or fewer hands. Milgram’s work was popularized in the 1990 play “Six Degrees of Separation.”

Among fisheries, the world seems even smaller: We found that the average number of degrees of separation among fisheries is five. This means that local problems can become global risks.

For example, imagine that a fishery collapses in the middle of the Mediterranean. If the population in one spawning region collapses, it could quickly put pressure on neighboring fisheries dependent upon it. If fishers in those neighboring countries overfish the remaining population or shift to other species, the disturbance can grow. Within just a few years, a fisheries disturbance could travel around the world.

We assessed how countries would be affected in terms of food security, employment and gross domestic product if they were to lose access to fish spawn from other territories. The most affected countries cluster in the Caribbean, the western Pacific, Northern Europe and West Africa. These hotspots correspond to the network’s most clustered areas, because the effects of these flows of fish spawn are most pronounced where many coastal countries lie in close proximity.

International flows of fish eggs and larvae affect countries’ total catch, food security, jobs and economies.
Nandini Ramesh, James Rising and Kimberly Oremus, CC BY-ND

Thinking globally about fisheries

Because the world’s fisheries are so interconnected, only international cooperation that takes flows of fish spawn into account can effectively manage them. Aside from egg and larvae connections, fisheries are linked by movements of adult fish and through agreements among countries allowing them to fish in each other’s waters.

All of this suggests that fishery management is best conducted at a large, international scale. Proposals for doing this include defining Large Marine Ecosystems to be jointly managed and creating networks of Marine Protected Areas that safeguard a variety of critical habitats. Ideas like these, and careful study of interdependence between national fisheries, are crucial to sustainable use of the oceans’ living resources.

[ Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day. ]The Conversation

Nandini Ramesh, Postdoctoral Researcher in Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley; James Rising, Assistant Professorial Research Fellow, London School of Economics and Political Science, and Kimberly Oremus, Assistant Professor of Marine Policy, University of Delaware

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Acid oceans are shrinking plankton, fuelling faster climate change



Researchers investigated how acidic oceans affect plankton in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica.
Daniel A. Nielsen, Author provided

Katherina Petrou, University of Technology Sydney and Daniel Nielsen, University of Technology Sydney

Increasingly acidic oceans are putting algae at risk, threatening the foundation of the entire marine food web.

Our research into the effects of CO₂-induced changes to microscopic ocean algae – called phytoplankton – was published today in Nature Climate Change. It has uncovered a previously unrecognised threat from ocean acidification.

In our study we discovered increased seawater acidity reduced Antarctic phytoplanktons’ ability to build strong cell walls, making them smaller and less effective at storing carbon. At current rates of seawater acidification, we could see this effect before the end of the century.




Read more:
Ocean acidification is already harming the Great Barrier Reef’s growth


What is ocean acidification?

Carbon dioxide emissions are not just altering our atmosphere. More than 40% of CO₂ emitted by people is absorbed by our oceans.

While reducing the CO₂ in our atmosphere is generally a good thing, the ugly consequence is this process makes seawater more acidic. Just as placing a tooth in a jar of cola will (eventually) dissolve it, increasingly acidic seawater has a devastating effect on organisms that build their bodies out of calcium, like corals and shellfish.

Many studies to date have therefore taken the perfectly logical step of studying the effects of seawater acidification on these “calcifying” creatures. However, we wanted to know if other, non-calcifying, species are at risk.

Diatoms in our oceans

Phytoplankton use photosynthesis to turn carbon in the atmosphere into carbon in their bodies. We looked at diatoms, a key group of phytoplankton responsible for 40% of this process in the ocean. Not only do they remove huge amounts of carbon, they also fuel entire marine food webs.

Diatoms use dissolved silica to build the walls of their cells. These dense, glass-like structures mean diatoms sink more quickly than other phytoplankton and therefore increase the transfer of carbon to the sea floor where it may be stored for millennia.

Diatoms are microscopic plant plankton that collectively remove huge amounts of carbon from the atmosphere.
Alyce M. Hancock, Author provided

This makes diatoms major players in the global carbon cycle. That’s why our team decided to look at how climate-change-driven ocean acidification might affect this process.

We exposed a natural Antarctic phytoplankton community to increasing levels of acidity. We then measured the rate at which the whole community used dissolved silica to build their cells, as well as the rates of individual species within the community.

More acid means less silicone

The more acidic the seawater, the more the diatom communities were made up of smaller species, reducing the total amount of silica they produced. Less silica means the diatoms aren’t heavy enough to sink quickly, reducing the rate at which they float down to the sea bed, safely storing carbon away from the atmosphere.

On examining individual cells, we found many of the species were highly sensitive to increased acidity, reducing their individual silicification rates by 35-80%. These results revealed not only are communities changing, but species that remain in the community are building less-dense cell walls.

Most alarming, many of the species were affected at ocean pH levels predicted for the end of this century, adding to a growing body of evidence showing significant ecological implications of climate change will take effect much sooner than previously anticipated.

Marine diversity is in decline

These losses in silica production could have far reaching consequences for the biology and chemistry of our oceans.

Many species affected are also an important component of the diet of the Antarctic krill, which is central to the Antarctic marine food web.

Fewer diatoms sinking to the ocean floor mean significant changes in silicon cycling and carbon burial. In a time when carbon drawn down by our ocean is crucial to helping sustain our atmospheric systems, any loss from this process will exacerbate CO₂ pollution.

Our new research adds yet another group of organisms to the list of climate change casualties. It emphasises the urgent need to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels.




Read more:
Our acid oceans will dissolve coral reef sands within decades


The only course of action to prevent catastrophic climate change is to stop emitting CO₂. We need to cut our emissions soon, if we hope to keep our oceans from becoming too acidic to sustain healthy marine ecosystems.The Conversation

Katherina Petrou, Senior Lecturer in Phytoplankton Ecophysiology, University of Technology Sydney and Daniel Nielsen, Casual Academic, University of Technology Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Climate change may change the way ocean waves impact 50% of the world’s coastlines


Mark Hemer, CSIRO; Ian Young, University of Melbourne; Joao Morim Nascimento, Griffith University, and Nobuhito Mori, Kyoto University

The rise in sea levels is not the only way climate change will affect the coasts. Our research, published today in Nature Climate Change, found a warming planet will also alter ocean waves along more than 50% of the world’s coastlines.

If the climate warms by more than 2℃ beyond pre-industrial levels, southern Australia is likely to see longer, more southerly waves that could alter the stability of the coastline.

Scientists look at the way waves have shaped our coasts – forming beaches, spits, lagoons and sea caves – to work out how the coast looked in the past. This is our guide to understanding past sea levels.




Read more:
Rising seas threaten Australia’s major airports – and it may be happening faster than we think


But often this research assumes that while sea levels might change, wave conditions have stayed the same. This same assumption is used when considering how climate change will influence future coastlines – future sea-level rise is considered, but the effect of future change on waves, which shape the coastline, is overlooked.

Changing waves

Waves are generated by surface winds. Our changing climate will drive changes in wind patterns around the globe (and in turn alter rain patterns, for example by changing El Niño and La Niña patterns). Similarly, these changes in winds will alter global ocean wave conditions.




Read more:
Curious Kids: why are there waves?


Further to these “weather-driven” changes in waves, sea level rise can change how waves travel from deep to shallow water, as can other changes in coastal depths, such as affected reef systems.

Recent research analysed 33 years of wind and wave records from satellite measurements, and found average wind speeds have risen by 1.5 metres per second, and wave heights are up by 30cm – an 8% and 5% increase, respectively, over this relatively short historical record.

These changes were most pronounced in the Southern Ocean, which is important as waves generated in the Southern Ocean travel into all ocean basins as long swells, as far north as the latitude of San Francisco.

Sea level rise is only half the story

Given these historical changes in ocean wave conditions, we were interested in how projected future changes in atmospheric circulation, in a warmer climate, would alter wave conditions around the world.

As part of the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project, ten research organisations combined to look at a range of different global wave models in a variety of future climate scenarios, to determine how waves might change in the future.

While we identified some differences between different studies, we found if the 2℃ Paris agreement target is kept, changes in wave patterns are likely to stay inside natural climate variability.

However in a business-as-usual climate, where warming continues in line with current trends, the models agreed we’re likely to see significant changes in wave conditions along 50% of the world’s coasts. These changes varied by region.

Less than 5% of the global coastline is at risk of seeing increasing wave heights. These include the southern coasts of Australia, and segments of the Pacific coast of South and Central America.

On the other hand decreases in wave heights, forecast for about 15% of the world’s coasts, can also alter coastal systems.

But describing waves by height only is the equivalent of describing an orchestra simply by the volume at which it plays.

Some areas will see the height of waves remain the same, but their length or frequency change. This can result in more force exerted on the coast (or coastal infrastructure), perhaps seeing waves run further up a beach and increasing wave-driven flooding.

Similarly, waves travelling from a slightly altered direction (suggested to occur over 20% of global coasts) can change how much sand they shunt along the coast – important considerations for how the coast might respond. Infrastructure built on the coast, or offshore, is sensitive to these many characteristics of waves.

While each of these wave characteristics is important on its own, our research identified that about 40% of the world’s coastlines are likely to see changes in wave height, period and direction happening simultaneously.

While some readers may see intense waves offering some benefit to their next surf holiday, there are much greater implications for our coastal and offshore environments. Flooding from rising sea levels could cost US$14 trillion worldwide annually by 2100 if we miss the target of 2℃ warming.




Read more:
Droughts and flooding rains already more likely as climate change plays havoc with Pacific weather


How coastlines respond to future climate change will be a response to a complex interplay of many processes, many of which respond to variable and changing climate. To focus on sea level rise alone, and overlooking the role waves play in shaping our coasts, is a simplification which has great potential to be costly.


The authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of Xiaolan Wang, Senior Research Scientist at Environment and Climate Change, Canada, to this article.The Conversation

Mark Hemer, Principal Research Scientist, Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO; Ian Young, Kernot Professor of Engineering, University of Melbourne; Joao Morim Nascimento, PhD Candidate, Griffith University, and Nobuhito Mori, Professor, Kyoto University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

New research shows that Antarctica’s largest floating ice shelf is highly sensitive to warming of the ocean



Since the last ice age, the ice sheet retreated over a thousand kilometres in the Ross Sea region, more than any other region on the continent.
Rich Jones, CC BY-ND

Dan Lowry, Victoria University of Wellington

Scientists have long been concerned about the potential collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its contribution to global sea level rise. Much of West Antarctica’s ice lies below sea level, and warming ocean temperatures may lead to runaway ice sheet retreat.

This process, called marine ice sheet instability, has already been observed along parts of the Amundsen Sea region, where warming of the ocean has led to melting underneath the floating ice shelves that fringe the continent. As these ice shelves thin, the ice grounded on land flows more rapidly into the ocean and raises the sea level.

Although the Amundsen Sea region has shown the most rapid changes to date, more ice actually drains from West Antarctica via the Ross Ice Shelf than any other area. How this ice sheet responds to climate change in the Ross Sea region is therefore a key factor in Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level rise in the future.

Periods of past ice sheet retreat can give us insights into how sensitive the Ross Sea region is to changes in ocean and air temperatures. Our research, published today, argues that ocean warming was a key driver of glacial retreat since the last ice age in the Ross Sea. This suggests that the Ross Ice Shelf is highly sensitive to changes in the ocean.




Read more:
Ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica predicted to bring more frequent extreme weather


History of the Ross Sea

Since the last ice age, the ice sheet retreated more than 1,000km in the Ross Sea region – more than any other region on the continent. But there is little consensus among the scientific community about how much climate and the ocean have contributed to this retreat.

Much of what we know about the past ice sheet retreat in the Ross Sea comes from rock samples found in the Transantarctic Mountains. Dating techniques allow scientists to determine when these rocks were exposed to the surface as the ice around them retreated. These rock samples, which were collected far from where the initial ice retreat took place, have generally led to interpretations in which the ice sheet retreat happened much later than, and independently of, the rise in air and ocean temperatures following the last ice age.

But radiocarbon ages from sediments in the Ross Sea suggest an earlier retreat, more in line with when climate began to warm from the last ice age.

An iceberg floating in the Ross Sea – an area that is sensitive to warming in the ocean.
Rich Jones, CC BY-ND

Using models to understand the past

To investigate how sensitive this region was to past changes, we developed a regional model of the Antarctic ice sheet. The model works by simulating the physics of the ice sheet and its response to changes in ocean and air temperatures. The simulations are then compared to geological records to check accuracy.

Our main findings are that warming of the ocean and atmosphere were the main causes of the major glacial retreat that took place in the Ross Sea region since the last ice age. But the dominance of these two controls in influencing the ice sheet evolved through time. Although air temperatures influenced the timing of the initial ice sheet retreat, ocean warming became the main driver due to melting of the Ross Ice Shelf from below, similar to what is currently observed in the Amundsen Sea.

The model also identifies key areas of uncertainty of past ice sheet behaviour. Obtaining sediment and rock samples and oceanographic data would help to improve modelling capabilities. The Siple Coast region of the Ross Ice Shelf is especially sensitive to changes in melt rates at the base of the ice shelf, and is therefore a critical region to sample.




Read more:
Climate scientists explore hidden ocean beneath Antarctica’s largest ice shelf


Implications for the future

Understanding processes that were important in the past allows us to improve and validate our model, which in turn gives us confidence in our future projections. Through its history, the ice sheet in the Ross Sea has been sensitive to changes in ocean and air temperatures. Currently, ocean warming underneath the Ross Ice Shelf is the main concern, given its potential to cause melting from below.

Challenges remain in determining exactly how ocean temperatures will change underneath the Ross Ice Shelf in the coming decades. This will depend on changes to patterns of ocean circulation, with complex interactions and feedback between sea ice, surface winds and melt water from the ice sheet.

Given the sensitivity of ice shelves to ocean warming, we need an integrated modelling approach that can accurately reproduce both the ocean circulation and dynamics of the ice sheet. But the computational cost is high.

Ultimately, these integrated projections of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic ice sheet will help policymakers and communities to develop meaningful adaptation strategies for cities and coastal infrastructure exposed to the risk of rising seas.The Conversation

Dan Lowry, PhD candidate, Victoria University of Wellington

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Eelgrass keeps the oceans alive and preserves shipwrecks, so just cope when it tickles your feet



Sea grass meadows at Bonna Point.
Valentina Hurtado-McCormick, Author provided

Valentina Hurtado-McCormick, University of Technology Sydney

Sign up to the Beating Around the Bush newsletter here, and suggest a plant we should cover at batb@theconversation.edu.au.


Have you ever walked into the ocean from a stunning Australian beach and realised the sand was covered with hundreds of ticklish leaves? This submerged canopy is a seagrass meadow, and while you might see them as a nuisance to swim past, they’re a hidden treasure.

Seagrasses are the only group of flowering plants that have adapted to the marine environment. This group comprises nearly 60 species, which typically occupy tropical and temperate regions of the world distributed across 1,646,788 km2.

There is a disproportionately large number of temperate seagrass species in southern Australia, with Zostera species dominating extensive and very diverse meadows.

Eelgrass (Zostera muelleri) is one of the dominant meadow-forming species in Australia. It has the widest distribution of its family (Zosteraceae) in temperate Australian waters, and is vital to our oceans’ health.



The Conversation

Don’t call me weedy!

These aquatic plants have evolved myriad adaptations to survive in the seas, and contrary to what many people think, seagrasses are very different from seaweeds.

Seaweeds are comparatively simple organisms: they are macroalgae with no vascular tissue, which is what conducts water and nutrients throughout a plant. In comparison, eelgrass has leaves, root and rhizomes, with flowers, fruits and seeds for reproduction.


J. Maughn/Flickr, CC BY-SA

They do, however, share one thing. Seagrasses and seaweeds are “holobionts” – meaning that they each play host to a range of microorganisms such as bacteria, fungi and microalgae that help to support their health and survival.

Research has shown that these crucial host-microbe relationships can be easily disrupted.

Climate change is not just affecting the seagrass host; the entire holobiont and even the environment it occupies are suffering from rising temperatures.

Purple plants in warm waters

My research involves studying the response of seagrass and their associated microbes to environmental degradation. I realised how much warming oceans were affecting eelgrass when I suddenly came across purple shoots in a meadow I was sampling once a month.

I was shocked. I had never seen anything like it.

While previous research has described the phenomenon of seagrass leaf reddening, I’d never heard of seagrass going purple in this specific black-purple-white pattern.

We already knew that the eelgrass accumulates red pigments as a sunscreen against the increased UV radiation that results from ozone depletion and related consequences of climate change. My PhD (soon to be published) has found that this colour change has a strong effect on the microbial communities that live on seagrass leaves.

Seagrasses establish and maintain fundamental relationships with the microbes that live among them.
Valentina Hurtado McCormick, Author provided

Why should we care?

Besides producing weird sensations on human feet, eelgrass and its counterparts are a crucial part of our coastal ecosystems. Probably the best example is their nursery role in supporting juvenile fish and crustaceans.

They also provide food for a wide range of grazers, from dugongs to the green sea turtle (as featured in the movie Finding Nemo), which feed on bounteous seagrass meadows.

Finally, we can also thank them for sequestering huge amounts of organic carbon that would otherwise contribute enormously to the greenhouse effect. Referred to as “blue carbon sinks”, researchers have calculated seagrass meadows could store 19.9 gigatonnes of organic carbon worldwide.

I could keep writing about the virtues of Zostera species (and seagrasses in general) for much, much longer, but I will leave you with a single thought: we breathe and eat from a healthy ocean, and the ocean is not healthy without seagrass.

Not just grass under your feet

Seagrass is so protective, I think of them as one of the most altruistic plants on the planet. They keep waterborne pathogens in check and neutralise harmful bacteria, keeping coral reefs healthy, and acting as an important part of the ocean’s well-being.

On the other hand, these aquatic plants also help preserve human heritage. They create a thick sediment layer on the seafloor, beneath which shipwrecks and other treasures are buried and protected from decomposition.




Read more:
Seagrass, protector of shipwrecks and buried treasure


For some 400 million years, eelgrass and other seagrass species have protected the ocean, our planet, and the creatures who live here.

In return, we have managed to create uncountable ways to directly or indirectly threaten seagrass-based ecosystems. As a result, meadows have declined globally at the accelerated rate of 7% per year.

For many of us, seagrass meadows are simply an obstacle to get past on the way to the waves. But for those of us who spend our days with a snorkel and collection tubes, these little watery plants mean far more. When I look at a single seagrass leaf, I see an entire microcosm of interacting entities.


Sign up to Beating Around the Bush, a series that profiles native plants: part gardening column, part dispatches from country, entirely Australian.The Conversation

Valentina Hurtado-McCormick, PhD Candidate, University of Technology Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Will the discovery of another plastic-trashed island finally spark meaningful change?


Jennifer Lavers, University of Tasmania and Annett Finger, Victoria University

Today we learnt of yet another remote and formerly pristine location on our planet that’s become “trashed” by plastic debris.

Research published today in Scientific Reports shows some 238 tonnes of plastic have washed up on Australia’s remote Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

It’s not the first time the world has been confronted with an island drowning under debris. Perhaps it’s time to take stock of where we’re at, what we’ve learnt about plastic and figure out whether we can be bothered, or care enough, to do something meaningful.




Read more:
This South Pacific island of rubbish shows why we need to quit our plastic habit


Taking stock

In 2017, the world was introduced to Henderson Island, an exceptionally remote uninhabited island in the South Pacific. It has the dubious honour of being home to the beach with the highest ever recorded density of plastic debris (more than 4,400 pieces per metre squared).

What’s more, a single photo taken in 1992 showed Henderson Island had gone from pristine to trashed in only 23-years.

Now, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands off the coast of Australia are set to challenge that record, despite being sparsely populated and recognised for having one of Australia’s most beautiful beaches.

A recent, comprehensive survey of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands revealed mountains of plastic trash washed up on the beaches.




Read more:
Plastic warms the planet twice as much as aviation – here’s how to make it climate-friendly


While the density of debris on Cocos (a maximum of 2,506 items per square metre) was found to be less than that on Henderson Island, the total amount of debris Cocos must contend with is staggering: an estimated 414 million debris items weighing 238 tonnes.

A quarter of the identifiable items were found to be “single-use”, or disposable plastics, including straws, bags, bottles, and an estimated 373,000 toothbrushes.

At only 14 kilometres squared, the entire Cocos (Keeling) Island group is a little more than twice the size of the Melbourne CBD. So it’s hard to envision 414 million debris items in such a small area.

Lessons learned

Islands “filter” debris from the ocean. Items flow past and accumulate on beaches, providing valuable information about the quantity of plastic in the oceans.

So, what have these two studies of remote islands taught us?

South Island. A quarter of the identifiable items were found to be disposable plastics.
Cara Ratajczak, Author provided

On Cocos, the overwhelming quantity of debris you can see on the surface accounts for just 7% of the total debris present on the islands. The remaining 93% (approximately 383 million items) is buried below the sediment. Much like the proverbial iceberg, we’re only seeing the very tip of the problem.

Henderson Island, on the other hand, highlighted the terrifying pace of change, from pristine, tropical oasis to being inundated with 38 million plastic items in just two decades.

In the past 12 months alone, scientists have made other, ground-breaking discoveries that have emphasised how little we understand about the behaviour of plastic in the environment and the myriad consequences for species and habitats – including ourselves.




Read more:
Eight million tonnes of plastic are going into the ocean each year


Here are a few of the shocking discoveries:

  • microplastics were reported in bottled water, salt and beer

  • chemicals from degrading plastic in the ocean were found to disrupt photosynthesis in marine bacteria that are important to the carbon cycle, including producing the oxygen for approximately every tenth breath we take

  • degrading plastic exposed to UV sunlight (such as those on beaches) was reported to produce greenhouse gas emissions, including methane. This is predicted to increase significantly over the next 20 years in line with plastic production trends

  • microplastic particles are ingested by krill at the base of the marine food web, then fragmented into nano-sized particles

  • plastic items recovered from the ocean were found to be reservoirs and potential vectors for microbial communities with antibiotic resistant genes

  • tiny nanoplastics are transported via wind in the atmosphere and deposited in cities and even remote areas, including mountain tops

Meaningful action

Clean-ups on near-shore islands and coastal areas around cities are fantastic.

The educational component is invaluable and they provide an important sense of community. They also prevent large items, like bottles, from breaking up into hundreds or thousands of bite-sized microplastics.

But large-scale clean-ups of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and most other remote islands, are challenging for a variety of reasons. Getting to these locations is expensive, as would be shipping the plastic off for recycling or disposal.

There are also serious biosecurity issues relating to moving plastic debris off islands. Even if we did somehow manage to clean these remote islands, it would not be long before the beaches are trashed again, as it was estimated on Henderson Island that more than 3,500 new pieces of plastic wash up every single day.

As Heidi Taylor from Tangaroa Blue, an Australian initiative tackling marine debris, puts so aptly:

if all we ever do is clean up, that is all we will ever do.

For our clean-up efforts to be effective, they must be paired with individual behaviour change, underpinned by legislation that mandates producers to take responsibility for the entire lifecycle of their products.

Single-use items, such as razors, cutlery, scoops for coffee or laundry powder and toothbrushes were very common on the beaches of Cocos. Clearly this is an area where extended product stewardship laws (following the principles of a circular economy), coupled with informed consumer choices can lead to better decisions about the types of products we use and how and when we dispose of them.




Read more:
There’s no ‘garbage patch’ in the Southern Indian Ocean, so where does all the rubbish go?


The global plastic crisis requires immediate and wide-ranging actions that drastically reduce our plastic consumption. And large corporations and government need to adopt a leadership role.

In the EU, for instance, governments voted in March 2019 to implement a ban on the ten most prolific single-use plastic items by 2021. The rest of the world urgently needs to follow suit. Let’s stop arguing about how to clean up the mess, and start implementing meaningful preventative actions.The Conversation

Jennifer Lavers, Research Scientist, University of Tasmania and Annett Finger, Adjunct Research Fellow, Victoria University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.