Andrew Glikson, Australian National University
Dear The Hon. Malcolm Turnbull MP, Prime Minister of Australia,
The following is an open letter signed by 154 Australian atmospheric, marine, environmental, biological and medical scientists, including several leading climatologists, for your and your government’s attention.
There is no Planet B
In July 2016, global temperatures soared to the hottest in the 136 years of the instrumental record, 0.1℃ warmer than previous warm Julys in 2015, 2011 and 2009. It followed a succession of rising temperatures, moving from 0.42℃ above average in 2000, to 0.87℃ above average by 2015.
Developments in the atmosphere-ocean system reported by major climate research organisations (including NASA, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the US National Snow & Ice Data Center, the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, the Tyndall Centre, the Potsdam Institute; the science academics of dozens of nations; and in Australia the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology) include:
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A rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to 404.39 parts per million (ppm; as of July 2016), an average rise of 3.08 ppm per year. This rate is unprecedented in the geological record of the past 55 million years, and is tracking towards the stability threshold of the Antarctic ice sheet, estimated at around 450ppm atmospheric CO₂.
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The rise in greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere and oceans is leading to an increase in extreme weather events relative to the period 1950-60, including tropical storms such as those in Fiji, Vanuatu and the Philippines, with lives lost and damage estimated in the billions of dollars. In Australia the frequency of extreme weather events has been increasing, and since 2001 the number of extreme heat records has outnumbered extreme cool records by almost three to one for daytime maximum temperatures, and around five to one for night-time minimum temperatures.
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Impacts on a similar scale are taking place in the ocean, where the CO₂ rise has caused an increase in acidity from pH 8.2 to 8.1 already. The pH is predicted to decrease to 7.8 by 2100, affecting coral reefs and the marine food chain.
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Ice sheet melt rates have been increasing and the rate of sea-level rise has been accelerating, from roughly 1.7mm per year over the past century to 3.2mm per year between 1993 and 2010, and to about 3.5mm per year today. This threatens low-lying islands, deltas and lower river valleys where billions of people live – a problem that is compounded by increased variability of river flows in terms of floods and droughts.
We are concerned that global warming, amplified by feedbacks from polar ice melt, methane release from permafrost, and extensive fires, may become irreversible, including the possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a crucial component of the global climate system that transfers heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic.
According to James Hansen, NASA’s former chief climate scientist, “burning all fossil fuels would create a different planet than the one that humanity knows“. Joachim Schellnhuber, Germany’s chief climate scientist, has summed up the situation by saying: “We’re simply talking about the very life support system of this planet.”
We note your broad agreement with this point, in light of your 2010 statement that:
…we are as humans conducting a massive science experiment with this planet. It’s the only planet we have got… We know that the consequences of unchecked global warming would be catastrophic… We as a human species have a deep and abiding obligation to this planet and to the generations that will come after us.
While the Paris Agreement remains unbinding and global warming has received minimal attention in the recent elections, governments worldwide are presiding over a large-scale demise of the planetary ecosystems, which threatens to leave large parts of Earth uninhabitable.
We call on the Australian government to tackle the root causes of an unfolding climate tragedy and do what is required to protect future generations and nature, including meaningful reductions of Australia’s peak carbon emissions and coal exports, while there is still time.
There is no Planet B.
Yours sincerely,
Dr Christine Adams-Hosking, Conservation planner, University of Queensland
Associate Professor Stephen Adelstein, Medical scientist, University of Sydney
Professor Ross Alford, Tropical ecologist, James Cook University
Dr Wallace Ambrose, Archaeological anthropologist, ANU
Dr Martin Anda, Environmental engineer, Murdoch University
Dr Marion Anderston, Geochemist, Monash University
Professor Michael Archer, Paleontologist, UNSW Australia
Dr Leanne Armand, Marine Researcher, Macquarie University
Professor Patricia Armati, Medical scientist, University of Sydney
Professor Owen Atkin, Plant respiration researcher, ANU
Professor Elaine Baker, Marine scientist, University of Sydney
Associate Professor Cathy Banwell, Medical scientist, ANU
Dr Andrew Barnes, Aquatic animal health researcher, University of Queensland
Dr Fiona Beck, Renewable energy researcher, ANU
Dr Tom Beer, Climatic and environmental change researcher, CSIRO
Professor Andrew Blakers, Photovoltaics/energy storage researcher, ANU
Professor Phillip Board, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Justin Borevitz, Plant geneticist, ANU
Dr Caryl Bosman, Environmental planning researcher, Griffith University
Professor David Bowman, Forestry researcher, University of Tasmania
Dr Timothy Broadribb, Plant Scientist, University of Tasmania
Dr Helen Brown, Environmental health researcher, Curtin University
Dr Tim Brown, Medicine and environment researcher, ANU
Professor Ralf Buckley, Conservation/ecotourism researcher, Griffith University
Dr Florian Busch, Plant scientist, ANU
Dr Jason Byrne, Urban design researcher, Curtin University
Professor Maria Byrne, Marine and developmental biologist, University of Sydney
Dr Martina Calais, Renewable energy researcher, Murdoch University
Associate Professor Craig Carter, Engineering and IT researcher, Murdoch University
Dr Phill Cassey, Ecologist, Adelaide University
Professor Carla Catterall, Ecologist, Griffith University
Dr Juleen Cavanaugh, Biomedical scientist, ANU
Professor Fred Chow, Plant biologist, ANU
Associate Professor David Cohen, Geochemist, UNSW Australia
Professor Steven Cooper, Evolutionary biologist, SA Museum
Professor Rod Connolly, Marine scientist, Griffith University
Professor Jann Conroy, Plant scientist, Western Sydney University
Dr Lucy Coupland, Medical scientist, ANU
Dr Joseph Coventry, Solar energy researcher, ANU
Dr Chris Creagh, Physicist, Murdoch University
Professor Patricia Dale, Environment/planning researcher, Griffith University
Dr Armanda Davies, Planning geographer, Curtin University
Dr Ian Davies, Forestry fire management researcher, ANU
Dr Kirsten Davies, Ethno-ecology and environmental law researcher, Macquarie University
Dr Robert Davis, Vertebrate biologist, Edith Cowan University
Professor Keith Dear, Global health researcher, ANU
Dr Fjalar de Haan, Sustainability researcher, University of Melbourne
Professor Hans Peter Dietz, Medical scientist, Penrith Hospital
Professor Bob Douglas, Medical scientist, ANU
Associate Professor Mark Douglas, Medical scientist, University of Sydney
Dr Jen Drysdale, Climate and energy researcher, University of Melbourne
Professor Angela Dulhunty, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Robyn Eckersley, Climate change governance researcher, University of Melbourne
Dr Elin Charles Edwards, Environmental geographer, University of Queensland
Professor David Eldridge, Evolutionary biologist, UNSW Australia
Professor David Elsworth, Environmental ecologist, Western Sydney University
Associate Professor Jason Evans, Climate change researcher, UNSW Australia
Dr Isabelle Ferru, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Tim Flannery, Climate Council
Professor Barry Fox, Ecologist, UNSW Australia
Dr Evan Franklin, Solar energy researcher, ANU
Dr Diego Garcia-Bellido, Paleontologist, University of Adelaide
Dr Stephen Garnett, Conservation and sustainability researcher, Charles Darwin University
Dr John Gillen, Soil scientist, ANU
Dr Andrew Glikson, Paleoclimatologist, ANU
Dr Susan Gould, Climate change researcher, Griffith UNiversity
Professor Colin Groves, Anthropologist, ANU
Dr Huade Guan, Hydro-meteorologist, Flinders University
Professor Neil Gunningham, Global governance researcher, ANU
Dr Asish Hagar, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Dr Nina Hall, Sustainable water researcher, University of Queensland
Dr Willow Hallgren, Atmospheric scientist, Griffith University
Dr Elizabeth Hanna, Environmental health researcher, ANU
Associate Professor David Harley, Epidemiologist, ANU
Professor Robert S. Hill, Paleobotanist, University of Adelaide
Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Marine climatologist and Great Barrier Reef researcher, University of Queensland
Professor Geoff Hope, Archaeologist and natural history researcher, ANU
Associate Professor Michael Howes, Environmental scientist, Griffith University
Professor Lesley Hughes, Climate change and species researcher, Macquarie University
Dr Paul Humphries, Environmental scientist, Charles Sturt University
Professor Phillip Jenning, Energy researcher, Murdoch University
Professor Darryl Jones, Behavioural ecologist, Griffith University
Dr Hugh Jones, Medical scientist, University of Western Australia
Dr Jochen Kaempf, Physical oceanographer, Flinders University
Professor Jeffrey Keelan, Medical scientist, University of Western Australia
Professor Peter Kershaw, Biogeographer and botanist, Monash University
Dr Carsten Kulheim, Plant physiologist, ANU
Professor Rakkesh Kumar, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Dr Lori Lach, Rainforest conservationist, James Cook University
Professor Barry Lacopetta, Medical scientist, University of Western Australia
Professor Trevor Lamb, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Tony Larkum, Plant biologist, University of Technology Sydney
Dr Annie Lau, Geography and environmental management researcher, University of Quensland
Professor Bill Laurance, Tropical environment and sustainability researcher, James Cook University
Associate Professor Fred Leusch, Soil, water and energy researcher, Griffith University
Professor Andrew Lowe, Plant conservationist, University of Adelaide
Dr Fabio Luciano, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Professor Justin Marshall, Marine biologist, University of Queensland
Dr Melanie Massaro, Ecologist and ornithologist, Charles Sturt University
Associate Professor John F. McCarthy, Resource environment researcher, ANU
Dr Allison McInnes, Plant biologist, UTS
AssociateProfessor Andrew McKenzie, Landscape planning researcher, University of Canberra
Dr Kathryn McMahon, Environmental researcher, Edith Cowan University
Professor Andrew Millington, Land change scientist, Flinders University
Professor Angela Moles, Evolutionary ecologist, UNSW Australia
Professor Renee Morris, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Professor Barbara Norman, Urban planning researcher, University of Canberra
Professor Nikos Ntoumanis, Behavioural medicine researcher, Curtin University
Dr Bradley Opdyke, Climate historian, ANU
Professor Richard G. Pearson, Marine and tropical biologist, James Cook University
Dr Barrie Pittock, Climate scientist, CSIRO
Dr Jason Potas, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Susan Prescott, Medical scientist, University of Western Australia
Dr Lynda Prior, Climate researcher, University of Tasmania
Dr Thomas Prowse, Biologist, University of Adelaide
Professor Marie Ranson, Molecular biologist, University of Wollongong
Professor Steve Redman, Medical scientist, ANU
Associate Professor Tracy Rogers, Evolutionary ecologist, UNSW Australia
Professor Chris Ryan, Eco-innovation researcher, University of Melbourne
Dr Oz Sahnin, Climate change researcher, Griffith University
Associate Professor Peter Sainsbury, Climate and health researcher, University of Sydney
Professor David Sinclair, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Dr Tom Sobey, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Professor Will Steffen, Climate change researcher, ANU
Professor Peter Steinberg, Marine scientist, UNSW Australia
Associate Professor Christian Stricker, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Ian Suthers, Marine biologist, UNSW Australia
Associate Professor Sue Taylor, Medical scientist, University of Western Australia
Dr Sebastian Thomas, Sustainability researcher, University of Melbourne
Dr Andrew Thomson, Solar researcher, ANU
Associate Professor Thomas Thorsten, Marine biologist, UNSW Australia
Associate Professor Ian Tibbetts, Marine Scientist, University of Queensland
Professor David Tissue, Plant ecophysiologist, Western Sydney University
Professor Matthias Tomczak, Oceanographer, Flinders University
Mr Shane Toohey, Medical scientist, University of Western Australia
Dr Gail Trapp, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Professor Patrick Troy, Human ecologist, ANU
Professor Tom Trull, Antarctic, oceans and atmosphere researcher, CSIRO
Professor David Tscharke, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Chris Turney, Antarctic climatologist, UNSW Australia
Dr Tania Urmee, Renewable energy technologist, Murdoch University
Professor René Vaillancourt, Plant geneticist, University of Tasmania
Professor John Veevers, Earth scientist, Macquarie University
Professor Charlie Veron, Marine scientist, Australian Institute of Marine Science
Professor Phil Waite, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Dr Elaine Walker, Physics and energy researcher, Murdoch University
Dr Hayden Washington, Environmental researcher, UNSW Australia
Professor David Watson, Water and society ecologist, Charles Sturt University
Dr Scarla J. Weeks, Biophysical oceanographer, University of Queensland
Professor Adrian Werner, Hydrologist, Flinders University
Mr Peter Weiske, Medical and environmental scientist, ANU
Dr Jonathan Whale, Energy researcher, Murdoch University
Associate Professor George Wilson, Wildlife management researcher, ANU
Dr Phillip Zylstra, Forests and fire researcher, University of Wollongong
Andrew Glikson, Earth and paleo-climate scientist, Australian National University
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
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