Pacific Islands must stop relying on foreign aid to adapt to climate change, because the money won’t last



Patrick Nunn, Author provided

Patrick D. Nunn, University of the Sunshine Coast and Roselyn Kumar, University of the Sunshine Coast

The storm of climate change is approaching the Pacific Islands. Its likely impact has been hugely amplified by decades of global inertia and the islands’ growing dependency on developed countries.

The background to this situation is straightforward. For a long time, richer developed countries have been underwriting the costs of climate change in poorer developing countries, leaving them reliant on Western solutions to their climate-related issues.




Read more:
Their fate isn’t sealed: Pacific nations can survive climate change – if locals take the lead


But as rising sea water continues to encroach on these low-lying Pacific islands, inundating infrastructure and even cemeteries, it’s clear almost every externally sponsored attempt at climate adaptation has failed here.

And as the costs of adaptation in richer countries escalate, this funding support to developing countries will likely taper out in future.

We’ve researched climate change adaptation in the Pacific for more than 50 years. We argue this trend is not merely unsustainable, but also dangerous. Pacific Island nations must start drawing from traditional knowledge to adapt to climate change, rather than continue to rely on foreign funds.

The ruins of a sea wall on a coastline.
High waves destroyed this sea wall on Majuro Atoll (Marshall Islands).
Patrick Nunn, Author provided

Western solutions don’t always work

On a global scale, climate adaptation strategies have largely been either ineffective or unsustainable.

This is especially the case in non-Western contexts, where Western science continues to be privileged. In the Pacific Islands, this is often because these Western strategies invariably subordinate, even ignore, funding recipients’ culturally grounded worldviews.

A good example is the desire of foreign donors to build hard structures, such as sea walls, to protect eroding coasts. This is the preferred strategy in richer nations.

However it does not embrace nature-based solutions such as replanting coastal mangroves, which can be more readily sustained in poorer contexts.

A likely scenario

The availability of external financial assistance means developing countries have become more dependent on their richer counterparts for climate change adaptation.

For example, between 2016 and 2019, Australia provided A$300 million to help Pacific Island nations adapt to climate change, committing to a further $500 million to 2025. This left little need or incentive for these countries to fund their own adaptation needs.




Read more:
Pacific Island nations will no longer stand for Australia’s inaction on climate change


But imagine this climate change scenario. Ten years from now, unprecedented rainfall is dumped on Australia’s east coast over a prolonged period. Several cities become flooded and remain so for weeks.

In the aftermath, the Australian government scrambles to make recently flooded areas liveable once more. They build a series of massive coastal dikes – structures to prevent the rising sea from flooding populated areas.

The cost is exorbitant and unanticipated – like COVID-19 – so the government will look for ways to shuffle money around. This may well include reducing financial aid for climate change adaptation in poorer countries.

Plunging international aid

Economic modelling shows nations will incur massive costs this century to adapt to climate change within their own borders. So it’s almost inevitable wealthier countries will rethink the extent of their assistance to the developing world.

A chart showing the projected adaptation aid to the Pacific Islands.
Recent and projected Australian GDP and adaptation aid to Pacific Island.
countries.

Patrick Nunn, Author provided

In fact, even before the pandemic, Australia’s foreign aid budget was projected to decrease in real terms by nearly 12% from 2020 to 2023.

These factors do not bode well for developing countries, which will be facing higher climate adaptation costs and dwindling foreign aid assistance.




Read more:
Australia is spending less on diplomacy than ever before – and its influence is suffering as a result


Building autonomy with ‘cashless adaptation’

Leaders of developing countries should anticipate this situation now, and reverse their growing dependence on outside assistance.

For example, rural communities in regions like the Pacific Islands could revive their use of “cashless adaptation”. This means developing ways of adapting livelihoods to climate change that cost nothing.

These methods include the intentional planting of surplus crops, the use of traditional methods of food preservation and water storage, the use of free locally-available materials and labour for constructing sea defences. And it perhaps even includes the recognition that living along coastal fringes exposes you unnecessarily to weather-related change.

Prior to globalisation, this is how it was for decades, even centuries, in places like the rural Pacific islands. Then, adaptation to a changing environment was sustained by cooperation with one another and the use of freely available materials, not with cash.

Researchers have also argued for such “looking forward to the past” strategies regarding Hawaii’s climate adaptation.

And research from last year in Fiji showed more rural communities still have and use a stock of traditional methods for anticipating and withstanding disasters, such as flood and drought.




Read more:
Five years on from the earthquake in Bhaktapur, Nepal, heritage-led recovery is uniting community


We can take this argument further. Perhaps it’s time for Pacific Island nations to rediscover traditional medicines, at least for primary health care, to supplement western medicine.

Greater production and consumption of locally grown foods, over imported foods, is also an important and valuable transformation.

The future of the developing world

A hut with a large pointed roof, built with local materials.
Dirak faluw (‘men’s house’) at Wanyaan Village on Yap (Micronesia) was.
constructed by community labour using local-available materials.

Roselyn Kumar, Author provided

The need for nations to adapt to unanticipated phenomena like climate change and COVID-19 encourages de-globalisation – including that countries depend less on cross-border aid and economic activity. So it seems inevitable that under current global circumstances, smaller economies will be forced to become more efficient and self-reliant.

Restoring traditional adaptation strategies would not only drive effective and sustainable climate change adaptation, but also would restore residents’ beliefs in their own time-honoured ways of coping with environmental shocks.

This not only means finding ways to reduce costs through cashless adaptation, but also to explore radical ways of reducing dependency and increasing autonomy. An appeal to past practice, and traditional ways of coping, is well worth considering.The Conversation

Patrick D. Nunn, Professor of Geography, School of Social Sciences, University of the Sunshine Coast and Roselyn Kumar, , University of the Sunshine Coast

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Storm warning: a new long-range tropical cyclone outlook is set to reduce disaster risk for Pacific Island communities



Photobank.kiev.ua/Shutterstock

Andrew Magee, University of Newcastle; Andrew Lorrey, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, and Anthony Kiem, University of Newcastle

Tropical cyclones are among the most destructive weather systems on Earth, and the Southwest Pacific region is very exposed and vulnerable to these extreme events.

Our latest research, published today in Scientific Reports, presents a new way of predicting the number of tropical cyclones up to four months ahead of the cyclone season, with outlooks tailored for individual island nations and territories.

A new model predicts tropical cyclone counts up to four months in advance.

Tropical cyclones produce extreme winds, large waves and storm surges, intense rainfall and flooding — and account for almost three in four natural disasters across the Southwest Pacific region.

Currently, Southwest Pacific forecasting agencies release a regional tropical cyclone outlook in October, one month ahead of the official start of the cyclone season in November. Our new model offers a long-range warning, issued monthly from July, to give local authorities more time to prepare.

Most importantly, this improvement on existing extreme weather warning systems may save more lives and mitigate damage by providing information up to four months ahead of the cyclone season.

This map shows the expected number of tropical cyclones for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific cyclone season (November to April).
http://www.tcoutlook.com/latest-outlook, Author provided

Tropical cyclones and climate variability

An average of 11 tropical cyclones form in the Southwest Pacific region each season. Since 1950, tropical cyclones have claimed the lives of nearly 1500 and have affected more than 3 million people.

In 2016, Cyclone Winston, a record-breaking severe category 5 event, was the strongest cyclone to make landfall across Fiji. It killed 44 people, injured 130 and seriously damaged around 40,000 homes. Damages totalled US$1.4 billion — making it the costliest cyclone in Southwest Pacific history.




Read more:
Winston strikes Fiji: your guide to cyclone science


Tropical cyclones are erratic in their severity and the path they travel. Every cyclone season is different. Exactly where and when a tropical cyclone forms is driven by complex interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, and many other climate influences.

Capturing changes in all of these climate influences simultaneously is key to producing more accurate tropical cyclone outlooks. Our new tool, the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP), will assist forecasters and help local authorities to prepare for the coming season’s cyclone activity.

This map shows the probability of below or above-average tropical cyclones for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific cyclone season.
http://www.tcoutlook.com/latest-outlook, Author provided

According to the latest long-range sea surface temperature outlook, there is a 79% chance that La Niña conditions could develop before the start of the 2020-21 Southwest Pacific cyclone season. La Niña conditions typically mean the risk of tropical cyclone activity is elevated for island nations in the western part of the region (New Caledonia, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu) and reduced for nations in the east (French Polynesia and the Cook Islands). But there are exceptions, particularly when certain climate influences like the Indian Ocean Dipole occur with La Niña events.




Read more:
India’s cyclone Fani recovery offers the world lessons in disaster preparedness


Improving existing tropical cyclone guidance

Current guidance on tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific region is produced by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Fiji Meteorological Service. Each of these organisations uses a different method and considers different indices to capture ocean-atmosphere variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Our research adds to the existing methods used by those agencies, but also considers other climate drivers known to influence tropical cyclone activity. In total, 12 separate outlooks are produced for individual nations and territories including Fiji, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and Tonga.

Other locations are grouped into sub-regional models, and we also provide outlooks for New Zealand because of the important impacts there from ex-tropical cyclones.

Our long-range outlook is a statistical model, trained on historical relationships between ocean-atmosphere processes and the number of tropical cyclones per season. For each target location, hundreds of unique model combinations are tested. The one that performs best in capturing historical tropical cyclone counts is selected to make the prediction for the coming season.

At the start of each monthly outlook, the model retrains itself, taking the most recent changes in ocean temperature and atmospheric variability and attributes of tropical cyclones from the previous season into account.

Both deterministic (tropical cyclone numbers) and probabilistic (the chance of below, normal or above average tropical cyclone activity) outlooks are updated every month between July and January and are freely available.The Conversation

Andrew Magee, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Newcastle; Andrew Lorrey, Principal Scientist & Programme Leader of Climate Observations and Processes, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, and Anthony Kiem, Associate Professor – Hydroclimatology, University of Newcastle

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

New Species of the Greater Mekong


The link below is to an article reporting on new species discovered in the Greater Mekong region of Asia.

For more visit:
http://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?uNewsID=222513

Amazon in Crisis


The link below is to an article that takes a look at the Amazon rainforest and the environmental destruction going on in that region. The article contains a good number of photos.

For more visit:
http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/blog/forests/pictures-silent-crisis-amazon-20140507

Africa: Sahara Desert Wildlife


The link below is to an article reporting on the decline of large animals in the Sahara Desert region of Africa.

For more visit:
http://news.mongabay.com/2013/1203-hance-sahara-big-animal-crisis.html

Spontaneous Travel


The idea of spontaneous travel has always been something I have loved, even though I’m probably one of the worst exponents of it. When I was younger I used to like getting a group of friends together and heading off into the Great Outdoors, of which there was plenty in New South Wales, Australia – even in our region around Newcastle. Many great times were had travelling around the Barrington Tops, Watagans and the Central Coast. Now though the whole idea of spontaneous travel seems almost to difficult to materialise. However, in recent times the dream of spontaneous travel has returned and I have real intentions of realising it.

The link below is to an article that takes a look at spontaneous travel and gives 9 ways you can bring it about.

For more visit:
http://blog.travelworldpassport.com/be-more-spontaneous-travel-often/

Australia: Northern Territory – Crocodile Attack at Mary River


The link below is to an article reporting on a crocodile attack in the Northern Territory’s Mary River region.

For more visit:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/10264863/Swimmer-snatched-by-crocodile-in-Australian-river.html

Australia: Tasmania – Tarkine Mine Approved


The link below is to an article reporting on an approval for a mine in the Tarkine region of Tasmania, home to the endangered Tasmanian Devil.

For more visit:
http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/journal/deadly-tarkine-mine-gets-go-ahead.htm