Making climate models open source makes them even more useful



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MiMA: an open source way to model the climate.
Martin Jucker, Author provided

Martin Jucker, University of Melbourne

Designing climate experiments is all but impossible in the real world. We can’t, for instance, study the effects of clouds by taking away all the clouds for a set period of time and seeing what happens.

Instead, we have to design our experiments virtually, by developing computer models. Now, a new open-source set of climate models has allowed this research to become more collaborative, efficient and reliable.




Read more:
Why scientists adjust temperature records, and how you can too


Full climate models are designed to be as close to nature as possible. They are representations of the combined knowledge of climate science and are without a doubt the best tools to understand what the future might look like.

However, many research projects focus on small parts of the climate, such as sudden wind changes, the temperature in a given region, or ocean currents. For these studies, concentrating on a small detail in a full climate model is like trying to find a needle in the haystack.

It is therefore common practice in such cases to take away the haystack by using simpler climate models. Scientists usually write these models for specific projects. A quote commonly attributed to Albert Einstein maybe best summarises the process: “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”

Here’s an example. In a paper from last year I looked at the temperature and wind changes in the upper atmosphere close to the Equator. I didn’t need to know what happened in the ocean, and I didn’t need any chemistry, polar ice, or even clouds in my model. So I wrote a much simpler model without these ingredients. It’s called “MiMA” (Model of an idealised Moist Atmosphere), and is freely available on the web.

MiMA.

The drawbacks of simpler models

Of course, using simpler models comes with its own problems.

The main issue is that researchers have to be very clear what the limits are for each model. For instance, it would be hard to study thunderstorms with a model that doesn’t reproduce clouds.

The second issue is that whereas the scientific results may be published, the code itself is typically not. Everyone has to believe that the model does indeed do what the author claims, and to trust that there are no errors in the code.

The third issue with simpler models is that anyone else trying to duplicate or build on published work would have to rebuild a similar model themselves. But given that the two models will be written by two (or more) different people, it is highly unlikely that they will be exactly the same. Also, the time the first author spends on building their model is then spent a second time by a second author, to achieve at best the same result. This is very inefficient.

Open-source climate models

To remedy some (if not all) of these issues, some colleagues and I have built a framework of climate models called Isca. Isca contains models that are easy to obtain, completely free, documented, and come with software to make installation and running easier. All changes are documented and can be reverted. Therefore, it is easy for everyone to use exactly the same models.

The time it would take for everyone to build their own version of the same model can now be used to extend the existing models. More sets of eyes on one model means that errors can be quickly identified and corrected. The time saved could also be used to build new analysis software, which can extract new information from existing simulations.

As a result, the climate models and their resulting scientific experiments become both more flexible and reliable. All of this only works because the code is publicly available and because any changes are continuously tracked and documented.

An example is my own code, MiMA, which is part of Isca. I have been amazed at the breadth of research it is used for. I wrote it to look at the tropical upper atmosphere, but others have since used it to study the life cycle of weather systems, the Indian monsoon, the effect of volcanic eruptions on climate, and so on. And that’s only one year after its first publication.




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Making models openly available in this way has another advantage. Using an accessible proof can counter the mistrust of climate science that is still prevalent in some quarters.

The burden of proof automatically falls on the sceptics. As all the code is there and all changes are trackable, it is up to them to point out errors. And if someone does find an error, even better! Correcting it is just another step to make the models even more reliable.

The ConversationGoing open source with scientific code has many more benefits than drawbacks. It allows collaboration between people who don’t even know one another. And, most importantly, it will make our climate models more flexible, more reliable and generally more useful.

Martin Jucker, Maritime Continent Research Fellow, University of Melbourne

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

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Map of Australia: World Heritage Sites


The link below is to a useful map featuring Australia’s World Heritage sites.

For more visit:
http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/journal/map-of-australia-world-heritage-sites.htm

Article: Bushwalking Tips


It’s amazing how many things you don’t think about when planning a bushwalk and/or trek. Some of the most basic things often slip your mind. I’m looking at a possible trip away very soon and I need to hit the planning side of things very soon or it will be too late.

The link below is to an article that provides some useful tips for planning and enjoying your bushwalk and camping trip.

For more visit:
http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/outdoor/top-25-hiking-tips.htm

Australian Wilderness Adventures: Episode 001 – Cathedral Rock National Park


Today I have uploaded the first episode in what will be a growing series of documentary-like videos for my YouTube channel (Kevin’s Wilderness Journeys). This series of videos will focus on national parks and reserves in Australia (especially New South Wales), with a view to providing useful information for people who may be interested in visiting the national park being considered in any particular episode. I am hoping to provide a preview of the main attractions in each national park and the facilities available for visitors. Hopefully these will whet the appetite for those who view the videos and provoke a desire to actually visit the national parks under consideration.

This first episode focuses on the Cathedral Rock National Park, with a look at the Cathedral Rock Track and the Woolpack Rocks Track. There will be more episodes to come, including episodes on Dorrigo National Park, Bongil Bongil National Park and Myall Lakes National Park – among others. Hopefully in time better equipment will improve the quality of videos available – but none-the-less, I do think the videos are useful to some degree as they are.

The actual size of the video I have in my archives for the first video is 2.85 GB, so there is a fair reduction in file size (and therefore quality) to get the videos online and within the limits of YouTube file sizes and length.

 

Updating the Website


I am constantly looking at ways to improve the kevinswilderness.com website and add new content to it. With the success of the Google Map that was added to the page dealing with my recent road trip, I have decided to add Google Maps wherever they would prove useful – such as for locations, track routes, etc.

The first part of the site getting an overhaul with Google Maps in mind, is the Barrington Tops page. I am also adding new content to the page as I go. The Barrington Tops page is one of the biggest pages on my site, so the process is taking a bit of time. You will also find the planned itinerary for my backpacking camping holiday here as well as I move along with it.

Visit the page at:

http://www.kevinswilderness.com/NSW/tops.html

NSW Road Trip 2010: Packing & Getting Ready


It is now the day prior to the NSW Road trip 2010. I have begun packing and getting ready for the journey that lies ahead. I don’t expect to be taking a lot of gear, as I won’t be doing a lot of cooking, washing, etc, on this trip.

I have learnt that it is important to not assume that you have everything you need and then find out the day before that you may not – I already knew this of course, but having recently moved, I no longer have everything that I once did. For example, I do not presently have a sleeping bag. I got rid of the last one because it was old and smelly, and I planned to buy another. But a lot has happened since mid 2007 when I packed to move – including a near fatal car accident that put my purchasing plans well and truly on hold, and they then slipped into the area of my mind that ‘forgets.’

So now I have no sleeping bag – but that isn’t too important as I don’t believe I really need one this time round. It is a road trip, with several cabin stops along the way and only caravan parks with powered sites for the rest. I will take a couple of blankets should I need them (which I don’t believe I will – it will be quite hot in the outback this time of year).

Of course it is not just the sleeping bag that is missing. I am also missing a fly cover for the tent, but thankfully I had two tents so I’m OK there. There are a number of other items missing also, but I don’t really need them this time round. Thankfully I have spotted all this now, which means I can plan to purchase what I need for future adventures, back pack camping, etc. I had of course planned to buy these items, but with the passing of time I forgot.

Anyhow, the packing is under way and I just hope I don’t forget something I wish I had packed when I am on the journey. I’m relatively sure I haven’t – which isn’t to say That I have forgotten something.

What I’d like to remember – and tomorrow I’ll know for sure if I have – is how I packed the car, so that everything was easily accessible. I was fairly well organised for this sort of thing when I was doing it fairly regularly several years ago – but it has been a while. Minimal gear wisely packed, without leaving anything necessary behind – that’s the key for this type of journey and vacation.

This will be the first time however, that I have a bag dedicated to my online activities – laptop, digital camera, web cam, flash drives, etc. I hope to keep an accurate and useful journal online at the kevinswilderness.com website, with photos, comments, route map, etc. So this is a ‘new’ bag that I need to organise in the overall scheme of things.

Anyhow, packing is now underway and coming to a conclusion. The journey will soon kick off.

NEW SOUTH WALES NATIONAL PARKS UNDER THREAT???


The New South Wales government is now considering some level of development in the national parks of New South Wales. Just what level of development that may be is yet to be made clear. It is understood that the development may include accommodation projects, various commercial enterprises and guided bush walks.

Tourism Minster Jodi McKay, a former news reader with NBN television, is waiting on a report from a government commissioned taskforce looking into ways that tourism can be increased in the state’s national parks.

The planned tourism development of national parks is a major step away from the ‘wilderness’ goals of recent times and represents a threat to the wilderness values of national parks and world heritage listed areas.

However, a certain level of development may be appropriate, given the serious deterioration of many of the amenities and signage within New South Wales national parks. Many access routes are also seriously degraded following years of poor management.

Perhaps a quality New South Wales national parks and reserves web site could be developed, with the current web site being quite dated and not particularly useful for visitors to the national parks of New South Wales. Quality information on the attractions and access to each national park would greatly improve the tourist potential of New South Wales national parks.

If quality visitor brochures/leaflets on such things as camping facilities, access routes, walking trails and park attractions could be developed and made available via PDF documents on the web site, potential visitors could plan their trips and this would certainly increase visitor numbers to the national parks.

Quality content and relevant up-to-date information on each national park, as well as well maintained access routes and facilities would encourage far more people to visit the national parks and give visitors a memorable experience.

BELOW: Footage of the Warrumbungle National Park in NSW.